Washington vs USC   Picks & Props

Play Washington down to +7.5. Washington has been stout up front (third in stuff rate, ninth in EPA per rush), and USC hasn't gotten its ground game going (79th in EPA per rush). That might make the Trojans more one-dimensional offensively than is ideal, especially with WR1 Trent Mosley injured. USC's defense (108th in EPA per play) is simply bad, and Demond Williams Jr. nearly always piles up production when playing down in competition.

Washington's poor offensive line (102nd in line yards, 118th in stuff rate) makes it difficult for the offense to truly click. Its defense, however, has played like a top-10 unit led by ends Jacob Lane and Isaiah Ward, and safety Alex McLaughlin.

Both teams typically get off to slow starts, and both will play tight early after crushing losses a week ago. Washington has hit the First Quarter Under in 10 of its last 13 games, whereas USC has done so in seven of its last eight. 

USC has struggled to separate from opponents this season, making it difficult to trust the Trojans to win by double digits against Washington. The Huskies are coming off a home loss to Minnesota, but they were clearly looking ahead to this matchup. Meanwhile, USC has posted underwhelming wins over San Jose State and Rutgers, along with a brutal loss to Oregon this past week. With Washington likely to be fully focused and USC lacking the offensive consistency to pull away, backing the Huskies to stay within the number is the preferred angle.

Washington's defense has been stingy, allowing just 16.8 ppg on 289.3 total yards per game. The defensive front (7.0 TFLs per game, third in stuff rate) could present issues, and USC can injury concerns at WR with Trent Mosley and Corey Simms absent against Oregon and Tanook Hines at far less than 100%.

USC hasn't proven enough to be deserving of a two-score spread against a game conference opponent, so I'd play Washington down to +7.5. The Trojans are much worse defensively (108th in EPA per play, 134th in PFF's tackling grade) than Washington (10th in EPA per play), and therefore the Huskies warrant a play as the underdog.