South Florida hosts UTSA on Thursday night in a game the Bulls need to keep their AAC and CFP hopes alive. They’re coming off a loss to Memphis but get the benefit of extra rest, while UTSA arrives riding high after dominating Tulane.
I explain why I’m backing the home team’s explosive offense in my UTSA vs. South Florida predictions and college football picks for Thursday, November 6.
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UTSA vs South Florida prediction
UTSA vs South Florida best bet: South Florida -13.5 (-115)
Don’t be fooled by the UTSA Roadrunners beating Tulane last week. That’s not to discount the victory over a solid squad, but a 22-point victory flattered them.
For starters, Tulane gifted them a score with a fumble on its own side of the field, and the following drive dropped a touchdown pass on third down before missing a short field goal. Two badly forced throws led to interceptions, helping the Roadrunners get the home win.
Still, the underlying metrics show this UTSA defense is pretty bad. Tulane posted a 13% explosive play rate, which ranked in the Top 15 for the week nationally. The Green Wave also posted a Top-15 success rate on offense with a mark of 51%.
That’s because UTSA gives away explosive plays like candy on Halloween. And I don’t mean the fun-sized stuff. More like the house in the rich neighborhood that hands out full-sized Snickers.
The Roadrunners rank almost dead last in explosive play rate against. They’re allowing opponents to hit big runs at a clip of 8.3% on the year.
Now they face a South Florida Bulls team ranked in the Top 30 nationally in explosive run rate, clocking in at 9.1%. Byrum Brown leads an offense that averages 5.3 yards per carry, 14th in the nation, and ranks 29th in EPA/rush.
UTSA’s pass defense is quite bad, and its offense won’t do enough to keep up with USF’s balanced attack. Add in the fact that the Bulls have a vastly superior track record at defending the red zone, and you have a recipe for another big Bulls win.
USF is 6-2 ATS this season and 3-0 ATS when favored by double digits. UTSA has failed to cover in each of its last three games on the road. Take the Bulls to cover the two-touchdown gap.
UTSA vs South Florida same-game parlay
Brown has rushed for at least 82 yards in each of his last four games, hitting the century mark in three of them. UTSA’s defense allows 4.07 yards after contact on the run — the second-most in the nation.
USF ranks 12th in calling designed QB runs at a rate of 28.9%, and Brown has at least one run of 20+ yards in six of his eight games. He’ll have another big day against a UTSA defense that let Jake Retzlaff go for 63 yards on just seven carries.
While USF will cover, I don’t expect UTSA to get shut down offensively. Owen McCown is coming off a career game where he completed 31 of 33 attempts for 370 yards and four touchdowns.
He's thrown 234+ passing yards in three of his last four games, and USF has an average defense against the pass while playing solidly against the run. McCown rarely scrambles or gets sacked, and will use the short passing game to nickel and dime his way Over this total.
UTSA vs South Florida SGP
- South Florida -13.5
- Byrum Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards
- Owen McCown Over 245.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Yards, yards, yards!
These two offenses are going to put up points, especially the Bulls. And with how many explosive plays UTSA allows, we’ll see them put up in bunches. USF will hit the Over for the sixth time in seven games.
Devin McCuin is McCown’s favorite target, with 50+ yards in all but two games — the blowout win over North Texas and the loss to Texas A&M. He’s coming off an eight-catch, 96-yard performance and should hit the 60-yard plateau for the fourth time in five outings.
UTSA vs South Florida SGP
- South Florida -13.5
- Byrum Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards
- Owen McCown Over 245.5 passing yards
- Over 67.5
- Devin McCuin Over 59.5 receiving yards
UTSA vs South Florida game predictions
UTSA vs South Florida moneyline prediction
The Bulls have just two defeats this season, losing at Miami and at Memphis. With extra rest and multiple players getting back to health, they’ll get the win at home against an inferior opponent.
UTSA vs South Florida spread prediction
I’m all in on USF covering the spread. The Bulls are 3-0 ATS this season as double-digit favorites and have an explosive offense that will punish UTSA’s leaky defense.
UTSA vs South Florida Over/Under prediction
Give me all the points. The total has gotten fairly high at 67.5, but USF’s offense puts up points and numbers, while the defense will allow some big plays to UTSA.
UTSA vs South Florida odds
- Spread: UTSA +13.5 | South Florida -13.5
- Moneyline: UTSA +400 | South Florida -550
- Over/Under: Over 67.5 | Under 67.5
UTSA vs South Florida trend to know
UTSA has cashed the Over in nine of their last 12 games for +5.70 units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for UTSA vs South Florida.
How to watch UTSA vs South Florida
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, November 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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