As we roll into the Saturday nightcap, whether we're up or down on the day, we're looking for a way to finish on a high note with our college football picks.
Headlined by the Minnesota Golden Gophers looking to shock the nation against the Washington Huskies as 10-point underdogs, here are a few college football long-shot picks worth considering for Sept. 26.
College football long-shot picks for Saturday night
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Georgia Techvs  Stanford |
Stanford ML | 39% |
 Missouri Statevs  SMU |
SMU Team Total Over 57.5 | 24.21% |
 Minnesota vs  Washington |
Minnesota ML | 23% |
| 💰 All three parlayed | 3-leg combo | 46.05x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. Lines subject to change.
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College football long-shot picks & predictions
Long-shot pick: Stanford ML
If you want the pillow, take Stanford +3.5. But the Cardinal is getting disrespected at home against a very underwhelming Georgia Tech team. So far this season, the Yellow Jackets’ only win has come against Mercer.
Prior to that, they lost their season opener to a bad Colorado team, then followed it up with a 45-24 loss to Tennessee, where most of their yards came when they were already down big.
Now, they have to pack up and travel to the other side of the country to take on a Stanford team that just got its rear end beat by Duke, 35-7. Prior to that, the Cardinal lost 45-6 to Miami, with its lone win coming against Hawaii in Week 1.
Based on who Stanford has played, I think it has far more blood in its mouth, giving the Cardinal an edge in early-season tests against top competition.
If Stanford can utilize its ground attack against the Yellow Jackets, who rank near the bottom of the country in rushing yards allowed per game, this could be a game the Cardinal steals from Georgia Tech.
Long-shot pick: SMU Team Total Over 57.5
Let’s back the SMU Mustangs to take care of the full-game total by themselves by backing their alternate team total over 57.5.
The Missouri State Bears have already allowed Texas A&M to put up 50 points in Week 1 and 30 points to Marshall this past week. Will SMU have enough in the tank to rack up nearly 60?
The Mustangs have only played one non-Power Four conference opponent, UC Davis, in Week 2, when they racked up 56 points. That game came after their big road win over Florida State in Week 1, too.
With SMU coming off a tough loss to Louisville and not looking ahead to anything until Oct. 17, the Mustangs should be fully motivated to clean up their mistakes from last week and go all out against the Bears.
Long-shot pick: Minnesota ML
Some argue both teams could be looking ahead, but I think Washington is the only team that could be looking forward to next week's matchup. Why? The Huskies enter the 2026 season with much higher hopes and hype than the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota needs every win it can get and has no reason to look ahead to Michigan the following week.
Plus, we know PJ Fleck will have his boys up and ready for this big road trip to Seattle. Despite the Golden Gophers being 10-point underdogs, they have a great chance of catching the Huskies looking ahead with a matchup against No. 12 USC at the Coliseum on deck.
This will be Minnesota's first true road test. However, the Golden Gophers hosted Mississippi State a few weeks ago, while the toughest team Washington has played so far is Utah State.
Shock the nation, Minnesota!
College football long-shot combo
Stanford ML
SMU TT Over 57.5
Minnesota ML
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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