The Baltimore Ravens gave their backers the football-trading equivalent of a Brazilian wax job last weekend, violently peeling away profits and leaving them with a painful outright loss as hefty home favorites.
My Ravens vs. Cowboys prediction weighs all the key factors for this non-conference international matchup, including why I'm expecting the Under to cash on Sept. 27.
Find out all my angles in my NFL picks below, with kickoff set for 4:25 p.m. ET at Maracana Stadium, with the game airing on CBS.
Ravens vs Cowboys prediction: Under 52.5
This is a large total considering the travel and neutral-site setup in Brazil, with the game being played outdoors on a grass field that could be less than perfect.
This number also seems like a stretch when you consider the Baltimore Ravens are favorites and anchor their attack in the run game — even more so with injuries to receivers.
Baltimore takes its cues from former coordinator and current Giants assistant Greg Roman, and they'll be playing bully ball against a Dallas Cowboys defense that's getting rocked by the run.
Dallas couldn’t stop New York in Week 1, giving up 165 rushing yards and a lopsided time-of-possession count that parked the offense on the sideline.
The Ravens are more formidable on the ground than the G-Men, ranked No. 3 in EPA per carry, No. 1 in success per handoff, and superstar running back Derrick Henry leads the NFL in yards after contact.
COVERS INTEL: Dallas defense sits 29th in opponent success rate per run and now faces a ball-hogging Ravens attack that plays with patience, tied for the second-most rushing first downs and eating up the 12th-most play clock per snap.
Ravens vs Cowboys combo
The Ravens’ rushing ability can stick this game in the mud. Not only can Baltimore bully this bad Dallas defense on the ground, but it chews up TOP and takes pressure off Lamar Jackson, who’s playing behind a shaky offensive line.
Jackson will do his part on the ground, rushing for 40+ yards. The Cowboys have allowed the most rushing yards to rival quarterbacks through two weeks, and injuries on defense open up soft spots for Jackson to exploit.
When the Ravens enter the red zone, Jackson will lean on his old reliable. Mark Andrews is still a big piece of this passing game, and the Cowboys have already had issues with rival tight ends, giving up two touchdowns to the position.
Ravens vs Cowboys combo
- Under 52.5
- Lamar Jackson 40+ rushing yards
- Mark Andrews 1+ touchdown
Ravens vs Cowboys touchdown scorer: Mark Andrews
The Ravens’ receiving corps is banged up with injuries to Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane, upping TE Mark Andrews spot in the pass-catching pecking order.
Andrews remains heavily involved in Baltimore's attack, playing in more than 70% of snaps and running the 12th most routes among all TEs. He’s reeled in 10 of 13 targets for just under 100 yards in two games.
The Cowboys have allowed 11 receptions to opposing TEs, two of which were for scores. Touchdown probabilities put Andrews' chances of finding the end zone between 30% and 56%, with most models hovering around 40%.
TOP PICK
Ravens vs Cowboys player prop: Lamar Jackson – Yes 40+ rushing yards
A dual-threat QB like Lamar Jackson can roll through that Dallas defense like a carnival float.
The Cowboys can’t contain fleet-footed quarterbacks, having allowed a league-high 126 rushing yards to the likes of Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels – the latter of whom only played the first half (69 rushing yards).
Jackson’s rushing efforts have been modest through two games, amassing 40 and 34 yards in the opening two games. However, he told reporters he’s still a big part of the running playbook heading into Week 3.
The Cowboys’ defensive shortcomings are amplified by an injury to top run-stopping LB DeMarvion Overshown, who is likely to sit out Sunday. Dallas could also be down two free safeties.
Lamar’s Week 3 forecasts vary widely, ranging from 31.5 to 51 rushing yards. My projection comes out to 44 yards but leans toward the higher end given the matchup.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 5-1, +3.44 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00 units
Ravens vs Cowboys odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ravens -3.5 | Cowboys +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (51%) | Under 52.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Ravens 68% | Cowboys 32%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Ravens vs Cowboys weather
Sunday's weather in Rio de Janeiro will be cloudy, with temperatures in the low 80s but feeling as warm as 97 degrees due to 75% humidity. Winds are expected from the south at 9 mph, with gusts up to 18 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ravens vs Cowboys trend to know
John Harbaugh knew how to come back from a loss during his tenure in Baltimore, owning a 66-38 SU record following a defeat (62.5%). We’ll find out if new head coach Jesse Minter has that same resiliency in Week 3. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Ravens vs Cowboys
| Location | Maracana Stadium, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Ravens vs Cowboys latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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