Utah vs UCF Predictions, Picks, Odds for College Football Week 14

Rosales' Prediction: A 9.5-point spread is too lofty for a matchup between underwhelming teams. UCF will win, but the Utes will keep it close.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Nov 29, 2024 • 17:15 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Micah Bernard Utah Utes NCAA College Football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Utah Utes running back Bernard Micah carries the ball.

It’s a merciful end to what’s been brutal seasons for both the Utah Utes and the UCF Knights when they square off at FBC Mortgage Stadium tonight.

Utah enters as a 9.5-point road underdog and is in real danger of ending the year on an eight-game losing slide. It’s not much better for the Knights, who have dropped seven of eight. Our Utah vs. UCF predictions won't go so far as to claim an upset, but the Utes can still cover on Friday, November 29.

This is still a matchup of one of the Big 12's best scoring defenses in Utah and a Top 5 offense in UCF. The Utes' defensive prowess informs our college football picks ahead of this 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.

Utah vs UCF prediction and best bet

Who will win Utah vs UCF?

During its seven-game slide, Utah has lost by eight points or less five times, including a 22-21 defeat to ninth-ranked BYU and, most recently, 31-28 to the 22nd-ranked Iowa State Cyclones.

The Utes allow just 21.3 points per game, holding opponents to 125.5 yards on the ground (fourth) and 199.7 yards passing (fifth).

It will most likely come down to how Utah handles UCF’s rush attack, which ranks fourth in the nation, churning out a massive 254.9 yards per game.

A dominant 56-12 Knights win over Arizona at home is their only W in the last eight. In their other three losses, they’ve produced an average of 19.3 points per game.

As much as I think Utah can compete, I don’t think they can put up enough points to eclipse the Knights. It won’t be pretty, but UCF escapes with the win.

My best bet
Pick: Utah +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Utah is coming off a loss to Iowa State, dropping the Utes to 1-7 in Big 12 play, with only the winless Oklahoma State Cowboys owning a worse conference record.

The 28 points were the Utes’ most allowed during this slide. Their offense is scoring just 23.2 points per game (14th in the Big 12) and is Bottom 5 in both rushing and passing yards.

Amazingly, the Utes have only been a betting underdog for the last three games of the season, and they are 2-1-0 against the spread in those contests.

The UCF Knights scored just 21 points in their most recent loss, their lowest scoring output in the last four games.

Still, they are fifth in the Big 12 in scoring, putting up 31.9 points per game. However, they are about as one-dimensional as it gets. The Knights’ passing game puts up fewer than 200 yards per contest and ranks 14th in the conference.

The formula is simple against UCF. Neutralize the run, and you have a chance to compete.

While its defense ranks above Utah’s in rush yards allowed at 123.5, it's winless in seven games when the opposition gains better than 70 yards. It's also outside the Top 10 in passing defense, giving up 228.5 yards per game.

Life as a betting favorite hasn’t been great for the Knights, as they are 2-5-0 ATS on the year.

While Utah’s season will end with another loss, it will land you a win if you take the points.

Utah vs UCF same-game parlay (SGP)

Utah +9.5

RJ Harvey Over 94.5 rush yards

Micah Bernard anytime touchdown

Good luck trying to stop RJ Harvey. The Knights running back is closing in on a 1,500-yard rushing year, with 21 touchdowns. He’s gone for at least 127 yards in each of his last five games and has eight with over 100 yards rushing on the season.

Utah’s rush defense is formidable, but Harvey averages just below 20 totes per game and rips off 6.9 yards per rush.

We’ll finish with Utes running back Micah Bernard, who’s closing in on a 1,000-yard season himself, just 78 yards shy of reaching that mark.

We’re targeting a TD for him on Friday. While he only has four rushing scores on the year, Bernard has found paydirt in three different road games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Utah vs UCF odds

Utah vs UCF live odds

Utah vs UCF opening odds

  • Utah vs. UCF spread: UCF -9.5
  • Utah vs. UCF moneyline: Utah +280, UCF -350
  • Utah vs. UCF Over/Under: 49.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Utah vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis

  • UCF is 1-3-0 ATS in its last four games.
  • The Knights have cashed the Over in four of their last five.
  • Utah has hit the Over in three straight.
  • 64% of Covers Consensus users are backing Utah on the spread, while 63% are taking the Over.

Utah vs UCF betting trend to know

Utah is 2-0-0 against the spread as an underdog of 10 points or less. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs UCF.

How to watch Utah vs UCF game info

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Date: Friday, 11-29, 2024
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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