The Buccaneers visit the Bengals on Sunday, Sept. 13, with Cincinnati favored by 3.5 points at Paycor Stadium.
My Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction breaks down whether Tampa Bay can cover as a road underdog in this Week 1 matchup.
Check out the rest of our NFL picks for this opening week matchup.
TOP PICK
Buccaneers vs Bengals prediction: Buccaneers +3.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playable down to +3, as long as the probability associated with it doesn't go north of 55%.
Tampa should have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, especially after bad injury luck last season. FTN had the Bucs 29th in offensive-line health luck and 27th on the defensive line, while Tristan Wirfs played just 12 games and Luke Goedeke 11.
While the Cincinnati Bengals have the two best players on the field in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, these rosters are otherwise fairly even.
However, I give Tampa's Todd Bowles a slight coaching edge, particularly with Burrow’s tendency to hold the ball vs. Bowles’ blitz-heavy defensive scheme.
Finally, Tampa Bay also started 6-2 last year before the wheels fell off due to injury. Health is wealth as they'll aim to start off strong in this 2026 campaign.
COVERS INTEL: The Bengals are 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in September since 2022 despite being favorites in 12 of those games. 
Buccaneers vs Bengals combo
Inverse combos have a fatter payout but correlated payouts make more sense. I'm choosing the latter because the Buccaneers +3.5 is one of my best bets for NFL Week 1.
Furthermore, since I'm not sold on playing either side of this total and the Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, I'm throwing in a couple of Tampa Bay offensive picks.
Buccaneers vs Bengals combo
- Buccaneers +3.5
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Baker Mayfield Over 14.5 rushing yards
Buccaneers vs Bengals touchdown scorer: Bucky Irving
Cincinnati's defense gave up the 10th-most rushing touchdowns last season and the second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Like most of his teammates, Bucky Irving had an injury-plagued 2025, but the Bucs moved on from former Rachaad White this offseason, which should mean more snaps for Irving.
When he was healthy in his rookie season (2024), Irving scored eight rushing touchdowns. He had a 55.1% rushing success rate and a 65.4% receiving success rate two years ago, too.
With former WR Mike Evans no longer on the team, I'm betting on Irving getting a bigger role in Tampa Bay's offense this season, and I like his plus-money payout (43%) odds for an anytime touchdown.
Buccaneers vs Bengals odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (53%) | Bengals -3.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (50%) | Under 50.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers 38% | Bengals 67%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Buccaneers vs Bengals weather
The weather forecast in Cincinnati for Sunday is predicting temperatures in the low-80s with an 11.0% chance of rain.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Buccaneers vs Bengals trend to know
The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Bengals.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bengals
| Location | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Buccaneers vs Bengals latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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