The Pittsburgh Steelers are now a sizable home favorite over the Atlanta Falcons, with quarterback Cooper Rush set to start ahead of the 1 p.m. ET opening kickoff at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 13.
My top Falcons vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks are calling for both offenses to struggle in Week 1, with the final score coming in Under the number.
TOP PICK
Falcons vs Steelers prediction: Under 41.5
The total in this game dropped from 42.5 to 41.5 following the Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) injury news, and it wasn’t a big enough adjustment. I’d recommend playing the Under 41.5 to 54.5%.
Sunday sees the Atlanta Falcons turning to Cooper Rush behind center, and the veteran game manager sports a 37th-ranked adjusted EPA per play among the 39 quarterbacks with at least 400 plays over the past two years.
Additionally, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been notably better, posting a 6.7 YPA and a 25th-ranked adjusted EPA per play during the same two-year stretch.
I’m anticipating ho-hum quarterback play and both teams leaning heavily on the run to keep the clock churning, paving the way for the Under to cash.
COVERS INTEL: The Atlanta Falcons produced the third-lowest third-down conversion percentage in 2025.
Falcons vs Steelers combo
The Falcons went 6-1-1 against the spread as an underdog last season, while the Steelers finished 4-4 as a favorite. I'm happy to take the points and fade Rodgers. He threw for a league-low 6.4 aDoT among the 29 quarterbacks with 300 or more dropbacks.
Additionally, pairing the Under 41.5 with Falcons rusher Bijan Robinson to score is an excellent multiplier to boost the return of this combo. He's handled 95 red-zone carries over the past two years, and Robinson no longer has Tyler Allgeier in the mix to steal goal-line and short-yardage work.
Robinson also posted an NFL-high 120.8 elusive rating in 2025, so he’s a candidate to take it from the house from anywhere on the field.
Falcons vs Steelers combo
- Falcons +5.5
- Under 41.5
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown
Falcons vs Steelers touchdown scorer: Kyle Pitts
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is a matchup nightmare and grabbed a career-high 88 receptions while conveniently playing a career-high 88% of the offensive snaps in 2025.
The Steelers also allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position last season, including 11 touchdowns, so this is a sneaky matchup because of Pitts’ versatility in the passing attack. He lined up in the slot on 34.7% of his offensive snaps and out wide on another 20.3%.
This Pitts touchdown recommendation is in play to 23.5%. Covers NFL betting analyst Josh Inglis also highlighted Rico Dowdle in his NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props for Week 1.
Falcons vs Steelers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Falcons +5.5 | Steelers -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (52.4%) | Under 41.5 (52.4%)
- Moneyline: Falcons 31.3% | Steelers 72.2%
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Falcons vs Steelers weather
The forecast calls for hot, humid 80°F conditions with a high 75% humidity level.
While light 5-7 mph winds won't have a major impact, a potential 31% chance of late-game precipitation could further assist the low-scoring handicap.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Falcons vs Steelers trend to know
Pittsburgh has played to the Under in six of its last seven season openers. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Steelers.
How to watch Falcons vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Falcons vs Steelers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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