As we roll into the Saturday nightcap, whether we are up or down on the day, we will be looking for a way to finish on a high note with our college football picks.
Headlined by Dabo Swinney and Clemson needing to find traction fast, here are a few college football long-shot picks worth looking into for Sept. 12.
College football long-shot picks for Saturday night
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| Game | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Ohio Statevs  Texas |
Over 60.5 | 28% |
 Iowa Statevs  Iowa |
Iowa -20.5 | 34% |
 Georgia Southernvs  Clemson |
Clemson -30.5 | 25% |
| 💰 All three parlayed | 3-leg combo | 44.44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. Lines subject to change.
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College football long-shot picks & predictions
Long-shot pick: Ohio State vs. Texas Over 60.5
As I detailed in my weekly Hate Bets piece, I’m already a massive fan of the Over in this matchup, so why not ladder this sucker in hopes of a cinematic Saturday night?
Texas allowed nearly 350 yards of total offense to Texas State last week, and that is not going to fly against a far superior team like Ohio State.
Meanwhile, Arch Manning and the Longhorns' offense should be able to move the ball down the field better than they did last season, as Texas added a ton of talent, while Manning also had another offseason to improve. He should get his revenge against Matt Patricia's OSU defense.
Long-shot pick: Iowa -20.5
Iowa State has won three of the last four Cy-Hawk matchups, making this game feel even more meaningful for Iowa as it looks to secure its first victory over the Cyclones since 2023.
In back-to-back matchups, the Hawkeyes lost by a combined four points, with both games within reach before Iowa ultimately fell short.
After former ISU head coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took plenty of quality talent with him, the Cyclones have been forced to rebuild under head coach Jimmy Rogers.
With the Iowa program still being led by Kirk Ferentz, he should have his boys more than motivated to welcome Rogers and his boys to the rivalry.
Long-shot pick: Clemson -30.5
We all witnessed the phrase "belt to ass" in real time last week, as LSU ran it up on Clemson in Baton Rouge. Now, the dismantled Tigers have to prepare to take on Georgia Southern, all while North Carolina looms the following week.
However, I would argue that, with how hot Dabo Swinney's chair has gotten over the last seven days, he has to have his boys ready to return that belt to the rear end this weekend.
If Swinney's job is in jeopardy, he cannot afford to look ahead or pull back in any game for the remainder of the season. He is getting destroyed by the national media, Clemson beat writers, and me included. The Tigers have to come out against Georgia Southern and play a perfect game.
In four of the last five seasons, Clemson has lost its season opener and followed it up with a Week 2 win by an average of 38 points. Ladder them to a 31+ point win in Week 2.
College football long-shot combo
Ohio State/Texas Over 60.5
Iowa -20.5
Clemson -30.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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