Thursday Night Football brings an NFC East clash to MetLife Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The last matchup between these two ended in the most jarring way possible, and my Commanders vs. Giants anytime touchdown scorer predictions expect more chaos in the rematch.
For more NFL picks, read our Commanders vs. Giants predictions for Nov. 12.
Best Commanders vs. Giants anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Stefon Diggs |
28% |
 Malik Nabers |
36% |
| First TD: Malik Nabers |
10% |
| Long shot: Van Jefferson |
9% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Commanders touchdown pick: Stefon Diggs
Play to 32%.
Stefon Diggs has proved to be a key offseason signing for the Washington Commanders, especially after Terry McLaurin was lost for the season.
Diggs leads the Commanders in targets, receptions and touchdowns, providing Jayden Daniels with a reliable option in almost every scenario — especially in the red zone.
The 32-year-old receiver leads Washington with five red-zone targets and has caught all five. Even better, four have gone for touchdowns.
The Commanders' lack of red-zone trips is to blame for the low number, but when the ball goes Diggs' way inside the 20, the numbers suggest it's going for six.
After Daniels and company embarrassed themselves in the last meeting between these teams, I expect a better outing.
Giants touchdown pick: Malik Nabers
Play to 40%.
In the two games J.J. McCarthy has started for the New York Giants, no one has received more targets than Malik Nabers (17).
While there aren't any touchdowns to show for it, you can't expect that kind of workload to go unrewarded for long.
Nabers' eight targets inside the 20 are second on the team — trailing only Isaiah Likely — and they each have three inside the 10.
This is also a dream matchup for the young wide receiver, with Washington allowing 240 passing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. Puka Nacua posted 14 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Week 9, and Nabers is in line for similar success.
It's worth noting that the last time Nabers scored was in Week 5 against — you guessed it — the Commanders, when he caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards.
First touchdown scorer pick: Malik Nabers
The teams combined for 54 points in their last meeting, and I could see this being another shootout. The Commanders' secondary is getting fried weekly, so I expect McCarthy will try to take advantage early and often.
Nabers had huge success in the last meeting, so why not go back to abusing that matchup? New York has enough weapons to work it downfield, and Nabers is also a capable deep threat who could burn any corner in the league.
With multiple ways to cash this, I'm riding with the LSU product to open the scoring tonight.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Van Jefferson
Play to 12%.
Washington's lack of receiving depth has caused Daniels to reach deep in the bag, and Van Jefferson had his number called last week ... again and again and again.
Jefferson caught five of his seven targets — tied for the team lead — and was the only Commanders player to find the end zone.
Washington has no choice but to look wherever it can for offense, and the 30-year-old receiver looks up to the challenge.
Jefferson saw his snap share jump from 12% to 58% week over week, and his Week 9 outing should ensure that number keeps growing.
At 9%, I'll bite.
Commanders vs. Giants touchdown combo
While I'm happy sticking with Stefon Diggs in the combo, I also want some action on Isaiah Likely.
The young tight end has been a godsend for the Giants, leading the team with six touchdowns. His size, paired with his ability to create separation, makes him a perfect combo leg.
- TD picks: 11-14, +15.03 units
- First TD picks: 0-9, -4.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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