No. 14 Houston heads to Folsom Field on Friday, Nov. 13, as a 9.5-point favorite over Colorado, with kickoff set for 10:15 p.m. ET and the total sitting at 51.5.
My Houston vs. Colorado prediction and college football picks put the Cougars' leaky defense under the microscope, with three picks targeting the spread, total, and first quarter.
TOP PICK
Who will win Houston vs Colorado: Colorado +9.5
I'm following the line movement and taking Colorado down to +8.5. The Buffaloes opened as 10.5-point underdogs and have been steamed down despite being just 2-6-1 against the spread.
More importantly, Houston's defense isn't good enough to be laying more than -7.5 on the road. The Cougars are 108th nationally in yards per play allowed against FBS schools and 118th in defensive third-down conversion rate.
That helps explain Houston's 1-5 ATS record as a favorite. I mean, how can you win by margin if you can't get teams off the field in late downs?
I'm also leaning on an old-school college handicapping angle: Fading ranked teams on the road in conference games against unranked opponents.
COVERS INTEL: The Cougars have allowed opponents to post success rates of 53%, 54%, and 51% over their last three games against Oklahoma State, Utah, and Cincinnati, respectively. Those numbers exclude garbage time and suggest Houston's recent defensive struggles have been even worse than its season-long averages indicate.
Houston vs Colorado Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
Give me the Under 51.5, down to 49.5.
Both offenses have low explosive play rates. According to GameOnPaper.com, the Cougars are in the 31st percentile of explosive play rate on offense, and the Buffaloes sit in the 10th percentile.
We could see long drives ending in field goals or fourth-down coin flips. Houston's offense ranks 101st nationally in red-zone scoring rate against FBS opponents, while Colorado is currently 115th.
The Cougars also struggle to get opponents off the field on third down, despite leading the country in offensive third-down conversion rate.
Houston vs Colorado combo
I'm expecting Houston to come out swinging before Colorado makes life difficult for the Cougars by sustaining drives and exploiting their poor third-down defense.
At the same time, neither offense generates many explosive plays, and both struggle in the red zone, making long, clock-draining drives more likely than quick scores.
Give me an early Houston lead, a Colorado cover, and enough time burned off the clock to keep this game Under the total.
Houston vs Colorado combo
- Buffaloes +9.5
- Under 51.5
- Houston -2.5 first-quarter
- Top picks: 18-24, -7.40 units
- Combos: 4-38, -21.30 units
Houston vs Colorado odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Houston -9.5 | Colorado +9.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (53%) | Under 51.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Houston 79% | Colorado 24%
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Houston vs Colorado weather
Friday's forecast in Boulder calls for temperatures in the mid-40s, no rain, and light winds around 4 mph.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Houston vs Colorado trend to know
The Buffaloes are 9-3 ATS vs. ranked teams under head coach Deion Sanders. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs. Colorado.
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How to watch Houston vs Colorado
| Location | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date | Friday, Nov. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Houston vs Colorado latest injuries
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