Hugh Freeze just couldn’t help us out, could he? He couldn’t take advantage of facing the worst team in the SEC and hold onto his job for another week?
Thanks for nothing, Hugh. Fortunately, the four other best bets here a week ago all cashed with ease for a 4-1 week netting +3.07 units.
A repeat week would be delightful. It will need to come via some unexpected sources, since the usual immediate bets of Ohio State and Alabama are both favored by just a touch too much.
Instead, these Week 11 college football predictions remind Wisconsin that it can always get worse, see value in two Group of Five conference frontrunners, and insist on profiting on midweek MACtion.
College football predictions Week 11
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Washington -11.5 |
-106 at FanDuel |
 Southern Miss -4.5 |
-106 at FanDuel |
 SMU vs.  Boston College Under 55.5 |
-115 at FanDuel |
 San Diego State -7 |
-108 at DraftKings |
 Kent State moneyline |
+118 at FanDuel |
Washington -11.5
The Wisconsin Badgers followed up a respectable showing at Oregon with an idle week, and now it seems the market has forgotten that things can always get worse.
Before Wisconsin scored a whopping seven points in the Pacific Northwest, it had gone more than 14 quarters without finding the end zone. One touchdown when trailing by 21 points should not erase those miseries from our memories.
I know red is Wisconsin's color, but the Badgers might be leaning into it too hard.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 4, 2025
Red is bad, Bucky.
(via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) pic.twitter.com/onW7GOKR1H
Offense will not be the Badgers’ greatest worry against the Washington Huskies. It is distinctly possible, if not even likely, that Oregon simply approached that game two weeks ago with nothing but ambivalence. The Huskies will not grant that luxury. They are not on cruise control like the Ducks can be.
And Washington’s passing offense should shred Wisconsin. The Huskies rank No. 4 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per CFB-graphs.com, now facing a defense that ranks No. 63 in the country and No. 13 in the Big Ten. To some degree, the Badgers’ Big Ten ranking is worse than that.
Opponents pass the ball against Wisconsin 6.9% more often than should be expected from an average team in a given game state, the highest rate among the bottom half of the Big Ten’s pass defenses. Opponents look at the Badgers and simply want to throw the ball nearly as often as possible.
When Washington takes that approach — already ranking No. 21 in the country and No. 2 in the Big Ten in passing rate over expected — it will lead to points and plenty of them. Against an offense that has managed one touchdown in the last 15-plus quarters, plenty of points should assure the Huskies of an easy win against the spread.
Southern Miss -4.5
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas State Red Wolves looks like a massive Sun Belt matchup, the two teams sitting atop the Sun Belt’s West Division, the last conference at the FBS level still using divisions. And with a spread within a touchdown, oddsmakers certainly see this as a tight Sun Belt matchup.
But it should not be within a touchdown. Looking at the most widely accepted college football metric, ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings, Southern Miss would be a nine-point favorite on a neutral field. Is Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro really worth more than two points? Let alone the 4.5 reflected by this spread?
The number is not deflated because of pace of play concerns, either. Arkansas State, in particular, throw sthe ball often, though not well. Southern Miss’ defense is far better against the pass than the rush, so the Eagles will be glad to meet the Red Wolves’ preferred approach.
Offensively, Southern Miss has largely improved as the season has gone along, its metrics deflated from a season opener against Mississippi State. As the Bulldogs have shown themselves to be a decent SEC team this season, that struggle looks more understandable.
Put more faith in Southern Miss to continue on its path toward Charles Huff’s second straight Sun Belt title, faith emboldened by the Eagles going 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four and 5-1-1 since that season opener.
SMU vs. Boston College Under 55.5
The Boston College Eagles played worse against Notre Dame last week than broadly realized. Sure, that was only a 25-10 loss, but the Irish missed three PATs and had two defensive touchdowns taken off the board by aggressive whistles.
Both the Eagles’ offensive and defensive performances graded out in the bottom fifth of expected showings. They were simply that bad.
This fits in line with their whole season. Boston College ranks 12th-worst in the country in converting quality drives into points, the cost of ranking in the Bottom 20 in both rushing EPA and passing EPA. There is nothing encouraging about this offense, and it has actually gotten worse as the season has gone along.
Related: My best bets column today fades ... Wisconsin, Ball State, Boston College and Arkansas State. https://t.co/CvoemQqqnd
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 5, 2025
The SMU Mustangs have cashed six Unders in their last seven games. And its offense has fallen off in the last two weeks. That may rebound against Boston College’s wretched everything, but it should not rebound enough to cash this Over by itself.
San Diego State -7
The San Diego State Aztecs have a direct path to the Mountain West title game, one that becomes locked in place with a win this weekend at Hawaii. A win this weekend means the Aztecs need to win just one of their final three games — vs. Boise State, vs. San Jose State, and at New Mexico — to reach the Mountain West championship.
That alone is not reason enough to bet on San Diego State late Saturday night, but recognizing its passing defense is reason enough.
No one throws more often compared to expectations than Hawaii, doing so 18.9% more often than analytics would consider normal. But that does not properly convey the extreme nature of the Warriors’ offense.
Pittsburgh ranks No. 2 in the country in passing rate over expected, at 12.8%. The gap between Hawaii and Pittsburgh is the same as the gap between Pittsburgh at No. 2 and Utah State at No. 25.
Against the No. 14 passing defense in the country, that extreme nature should become a faulty nature for Hawaii, particularly given the Warriors’ need for down-to-down success. Hawaii ranks No. 29 in passing success rate but just No. 66 in passing EPA, indicating the Warriors surprisingly function best with short- and mid-range gains, rarely finding explosive success.
Well, San Diego State ranks No. 2 in the country in passing success rate defense, forcing opponents into failure 67.9% of the time.
Pencil the Aztecs into the Mountain West title game. They should cruise in the islands.
Kent State moneyline
The Kent State Golden Flashes offense has been an asset in two of the last three weeks, leading to two wins in the last three weeks. 2025 is a wild time to be alive.
Ball State’s defense has not been a distinct asset at any point this season.
Neither of these teams can be described as good, but the Golden Flashes may actually be less bad. Their offense has found some versions of success behind quarterback Dru DeShields. In the last three games, he has thrown six touchdown passes while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt, stats nearing the thought of respectable.
I have bet the Kent State moneyline twice in the last three years.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 25, 2025
The Flashes won both games.
Did I fix Kent State?!?! https://t.co/94fy5nDhbW
At the risk of following Icarus’s path, let’s bet on Kent State to stay in the thick of bowl possibilities. Quite frankly, a win on Wednesday night could put the Flashes into the “likely” pile of teams chasing bowl eligibility, with games at Akron and Northern Illinois both looking quite winnable.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 24-30-1 this season for -5.54 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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