The Houston Cougars were looking to make some noise in the Big 12 this season. However, the Big 12 means college football chaos, and the Cougs dropped a game to lowly West Virginia the last time they took the field.
But leave it to sportsbooks to overreact to a bad loss because it looks like the Cougars have some value heading into Friday night’s matchup against the UCF Knights.
My Houston vs. UCF predictions break it all down and bring you some must bet college football picks for what should be another exciting Big 12 battle on Friday, November 7.
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Houston vs UCF prediction
Houston vs UCF best bet: Houston -1.5 (-108)
The Houston Cougars had dreams of getting revenge against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 championship game, but losing to West Virginia can derail that quickly.
The Cougars lost to the Mountaineers 45-35 as 12-point home favorites, handing them a second conference loss and likely knocking them out of the conference title race.
Now, a great adage in sports is you probably aren’t as good as your best win and you probably aren’t as bad as your worst loss. But it feels like oddsmakers have forgotten that here.
Houston has been a solid team all season long and was 7-1 prior to the loss to the Mountaineers. The Cougars rank 46th in EPA margin on both offense and defense.
On offense, the Cougs are led by QB Conner Weigman, who has thrown for 1,809 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding another 327 yards and nine scores on the ground. And I’m betting he doesn’t slow down in Friday night’s matchup against the UCF Knights, particularly with his legs.
Scott Frost’s return to Central Florida hasn’t gone as planned. The Knights are 4-4 for the season and have dropped four of their last five games overall, with the one win coming against West Virginia, funnily enough.
The Knights' offense has been stagnant all season, ranking 91st in EPA per play and 103rd in success rate. And they have scored 20 points or fewer in all four conference losses.
The defense, while solid at times, can be run on, and ranks 108th in EPA per rush. Dual-threat QBs Brendan Sorsby and Avery Johnson both had productive games against the Knights. Weigman should do the same.
Houston has been a consistently solid team for the majority of the season. UCF has been the opposite. Yet, the Cougars are just 1.5-point favorites, and that seems absurd to me.
Take Houston as the slight favorites here. They should cover with ease.
Houston vs UCF same-game parlay
UCF struggles in a lot of areas, particularly on offense. On defense, dual-threat QBs like Avery Johnson and Brendan Sorsby have given the Knights plenty of problems, and that’s exactly what Conner Weigman is.
Houston has made a concerted effort to run with Weigman over the last three games, giving him no fewer than 12 carries during that stretch. If Weigman can avoid sacks, then he should have no problem clearing his rushing yards prop in this one.
Weigman won’t be the only one rushing the ball for the Cougars in this one. Running back Dean Conners has been a workhorse for the Cougs, carrying the ball 148 times for 657 yards. I like Houston to feed him the ball near the goal line in this matchup. Add his TD to this SGP.
Houston vs UCF SGP
- Houston -1.5
- Conner Weigman Over 40.5 rushing yards
- Dean Conners TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Nixon finds paydirt
Jaden Nixon isn't UCF's lead back, but he gets the ball near the goal line and has already scored six touchdowns this season.
Houston vs UCF SGP
- Houston -1.5
- Conner Weigman Over 40.5 rushing yards
- Dean Conners TD
- Jaden Nixon TD
Houston vs UCF odds
- Spread: Houston -1.5 | UCF +1.5
- Moneyline: Houston -108 | UCF -108
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Houston vs UCF trend to know
UCF has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games for +2.75 Units and a 47% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs UCF.
How to watch Houston vs UCF
| Location | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date | Friday, November 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
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