Today I'm looking at the teams who will take some big steps back in college football in 2026.
I'm approaching things from two different angles: least-improved in terms of wins from last year, and biggest downgrade in terms of power ratings.
My five least improved teams in both win total and downgraded power rating are headlined by North Texas. Without further ado, let's dive into my college football picks.
Least improved teams in college football in 2026
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 North Texas Under 5.5 wins |
-166 |
 Southern Miss Under 3.5 wins |
-150 |
 Connecticut Under 5.5 wins |
-110 |
 Iowa State Under 5.5 wins |
-136 |
 Vanderbilt Under 6.5 wins |
-186 |
North Texas Under 5.5 wins
Last week I wrote about Oklahoma State being my most improved team in college football this season. The biggest reasons for the improvement were the incoming players from the North Texas Mean Green, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing a year ago with 4,379 yards.
This week we get to the opposite side of those departing transfers. I have been doing preseason power ratings for 15 years, but I have never downgraded a team more (17 points) than North Texas this offseason.
The Mean Green return zero starters from last year’s team that won a school-record 12 games. They rank No. 132 in Bill Connelly’s returning production (which accounts for incoming transfers) and No. 135 in Phil Steele’s experience chart.
North Texas also brings in just the No. 137 recruiting class, per 247 Sports.
My power ratings only project North Texas to be favored in four games. From 12 wins to no bowl game would be among the biggest drop-offs we’ve ever seen in college football.
Southern Miss Under 3.5 wins
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles went from 1-11 in 2024 to 7-6 last year. This year the roller coaster continues, as I’m expecting them to finish last in the Sun Belt.
The Golden Eagles have their third different coach in three years. They return just one starter from last year and rank dead-last (No. 138) in Bill Connelly’s returning production and are No. 136 in Phil Steele’s experience chart.
I’ve downgraded Southern Miss’ power rating by 12.5 points. That means I’d favor last year’s team by 12.5 over this year’s team. When you plug that power rating into their schedule, I only project them to be a favorite in one game (opener vs Alcorn State).
In each of the other 11 games, I project Southern Miss to be at least a TD underdog.
Connecticut Under 5.5 wins
The Connecticut Huskies have won eight and nine games the last two regular seasons, but I’m expecting a big drop this year.
Head coach Jim Mora Jr. is off to Colorado State, and the Huskies hired Jason Candle. While Candle went 81-44 in 10 seasons at Toledo, you could argue that he was one of the most underachieving coaches in the country.
In his last five seasons, Toledo lost 18 times outright as a favorite, including 12 times as a favorite of at least seven points. That was the most in the country.
This year, Connecticut returns only two starters from last year’s team. While Candle brings with him 19 transfers from Toledo, only two of them were starters last year. Connecticut only ranks No. 134 in Bill Connelly’s returning production (which accounts for incoming transfers) and they rank dead-last in Phil Steele’s experience chart.
The schedule sees Connecticut play three power conference teams, but also some of the better Group of Six conference teams in James Madison, Old Dominion, Miami (OH), and Air Force. My power ratings only project them to be a clear favorite in three games.
I don’t see a bowl game for the Huskies this year.
Iowa State Under 5.5 wins
Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers takes over for the Iowa State Cyclones, and it is his third different school in three years. Former head coach Matt Campbell left an empty cupboard as Iowa State returns not a single starter from last season, the only Power 4 conference school to do so.
While Rogers brings in 15 transfers from Washington State, only two of those players were full-time transfers. On3 ranks Iowa State’s transfer portal class dead-last among Power 4 conference teams.
I downgraded Iowa State 8.5 points in my power ratings. Those ratings project Iowa State as a clear favorite (more than three points) in only two games (SE Missouri State and Bowling Green).
Coming off an eight-win season, I do not think a bowl game is on the table in 2026.
Vanderbilt Under 6.5 wins
Last year the Vanderbilt Commodores won 10 games for the first time in school history. This year they could struggle to get to bowl eligibility after I've downgraded them eight points in my power ratings.
The Commodores lose Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia at quarterback. Pavia not only threw for 3,539 yards and 29 touchdowns, but also led Vanderbilt with 862 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last year.
This year, Vanderbilt will likely start a true freshman at quarterback in Jared Curtis. In fairness, Curtis is a five-star recruit and the highest-rated in the history of the program. However, the drop-off in QB production could be the biggest of any unit in the country.
On top of that, Vanderbilt loses the Mackey Award winner (nation’s top TE) in Eli Stowers, their top WR in Tre Richardson, and four starters on the offensive line. I’m expecting the Commodores to take a big step back offensively.
Vanderbilt should start 3-0 in non-conference play, but outside of a home game vs. Arkansas, there’s not a game on their SEC schedule where the Commodores will be more than a FG favorite.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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