Most bettors like the “bet a little to win a lot” approach. While I usually find value in the exact opposite tact, today I'm embracing the spirit of the average sports bettor.
Here are my five favorite college football long shot futures and college football picks to make ahead of the 2026 NCAAF season, starring the Houston Cougars.
College football long shot futures for 2026
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Houston to win the Big 12 |
+1600 |
 New Mexico to make the playoffs |
+2000 |
 Penn State to win the Big Ten |
+2500 |
 Keelon Russell to win the Heisman Trophy |
+3000 |
 Liberty to make the playoffs |
+12000 |
Houston to win the Big 12
I think Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz is the most underrated coach in the country. Fritz has won big at Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern, and Tulane, and guided Houston to 10 wins last year
The Cougars rank No. 9 in Phil Steele’s experience chart and No. 17 in Bill Connelly’s returning production. Quarterback Conner Weigman returns after throwing for 25 touchdowns while adding 11 more on the ground.
Keep an eye on running back Makhi Hughes, who transfers in from Oregon. Hughes originally played for Fritz at Tulane and ran for 2,779 yards in 2023 and 2024.
My power rankings project Houston to be favored in nine games, with another (at Kansas State) rated at pick-em. I also think there's some variance in the road game at Texas Tech on September 18.
There’s a chance Texas Tech QB Will Hammond might not be at 100% coming off an ACL injury from last October. If so, Texas Tech could be starting a third-stringer at QB, making the Cougars more live to win outright.
A 10-2 Houston team would still be very much in the mix for qualifying for the Big 12 Championship Game. Play to +1200.
New Mexico to make the playoffs
After averaging only three wins per season from 2017 to 2024, the New Mexico Lobos won nine games last year.
It was not a fluke, as head coach Jason Eck is a rising star in the coaching ranks. This year’s team could be even better, and the Lobos are currently the favorites in the Mountain West.
New Mexico welcomes back 13 starters, led by QB Jack Layne. The Lobos sit No. 21 in Bill Connelly’s returning production, the second-highest among all Group of Six conference teams.
With home games looming vs. North Dakota State and UNLV, New Mexico could be favored in as many as 11 tilts this year. Play to +1600.
Penn State to win the Big Ten
I would be surprised if someone outside of Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon won the Big Ten this year. However, if you’re looking for a small bet to make on a long shot, I don’t mind this price on the Penn State Nittany Lions.
They have a similar makeup as Indiana did in 2024. Matt Campbell brings 13 starters with him from Iowa State, not unlike what Curt Cignetti had with James Madison transfers at Indiana.
The Nittany Lions also have an advantageous schedule that sees them avoid those three best teams in the Big Ten. Penn State could be favored in as many as 10 games, and their largest underdog role is at Michigan (+6.5 at DraftKings).
While the rest of the Big Ten contenders will be beating each other up, Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game. If that happens, you can hedge that week if you want to.
Play to +2000.
Alabama QB Keelon Russell to win the Heisman Trophy
Neither Keelon Russell nor Austin Mack has been named the starting Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback yet. Mack has more experience in Kalen DeBoer’s system dating back to Washington. However, Russell has more upside.
In this year’s spring game, Russell completed 21 of 33 passes for 240 yards, with four touchdowns and an interception. Russell also extended several plays with his legs despite wearing a non-contact jersey.
That performance by Russell, along with other practices this past spring, has given him a leg-up in the competition.
Remember, DeBoer’s system is very QB-friendly dating back to his days at Fresno State (Jake Haener, Michael Penix Jr, and Ty Simpson, to name a few). If Russell plays to his five-star potential, Alabama will be 5-0 hosting Georgia in early October, and Russell will be a Top 5 Heisman favorite by then.
Play to +2500.
Liberty to make the playoffs
The Liberty Flames are coming off their first losing season in 20 years. They were better than their record suggests, as they lost three straight games in overtime to end the season.
The Flames out-gained their opponents by 67 yards per game in conference play last year. That was the best mark in C-USA despite their 3-5 conference record.
I think Liberty will be one of the most improved teams in the country. I have them going from 4-8 last season to 9-3 this year. After the opening game at James Madison (Liberty is currently a TD underdog), the Flames could be favored in their final 11 games.
The betting markets are all over this improvement, as Liberty is the preseason favorite in C-USA, and their win total is 8.5. Earlier this offseason, I recommended betting them +15000 to make the CFP and I still like them at +12000. There’s a decent chance Liberty might have the best record of any Group of Six team this year.
Play to +10000.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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