If this feels like a do-or-die moment for the Penn State Nittany Lions, that is a bit over-the-top, but only by a bit. The Nittany Lions should return to the College Football Playoff this year regardless of whether they can beat the Oregon Ducks this weekend, but their momentum toward a Playoff run would take a hit if they cannot win as short favorites at home.
My Oregon vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks trust the home team because of its two greatest strengths.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 27.
Oregon vs Penn State prediction
Oregon vs Penn State best bet: Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards (-114)
No one likes throwing against Oregon. Nor should they. The Ducks’ defense ranks No. 3 in the country in dropback success rate against, per cfb-graphs.com. And that defense has not given up many explosive passes this season, either, ranking No. 6 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
As a result, opponents run against the Ducks at the second-highest rate in the country, 22.1% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state.
The thing is, Penn State will be okay with that. The Nittany Lions throw often — No. 11 in the country at 10.7% more often than expected — but they do not need to. Penn State ranks No. 3 in the country in EPA per rush. Let’s put that as simply as possible: The Nittany Lions improve their chances of scoring on a drive when they run the ball, often by a lot.
Kaytron Allen has led the way, despite Nicholas Singleton getting more carries. Allen has averaged more than eight yards per carry and cleared this prop in two of three games.
That absurd average can be traced to the opponents, but that skeptical note is countered by recognizing Allen cleared this prop despite all being blowouts. He has yet to be tasked with a heavy workload. When that occurs, he should still reach 70+ yards.
Oregon’s passing defense should force that heavy workload. And its then only-adequate rushing defense should allow Allen to clear this prop.
Oregon vs Penn State same-game parlay
Penn State obviously has options beyond Allen. Nicholas Singleton has scored five touchdowns this season.
Combining that duo should steady the Nittany Lions for the biggest win of the James Franklin Era. And as Penn State forces Oregon away from the pass, it will simply be funneling the Ducks into one of the best defensive fronts in the country, creating a needed edge on both sides of the ball.
Oregon vs Penn State SGP
- Penn State -3.5
- Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards
- Nicholas Singleton anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Nittany Lions run the ball effectively
If Penn State dominates this game on the ground, Oregon will need to resort to the air at some point. Its rushing attack is simply not strong enough to keep up with the Nittany Lions'. Dakorien Moore may not be the best-known Ducks receiver, but he may be the most explosive, and if needing a quick strike, quarterback Dante Moore (no relation) should know where to look.
Oregon vs Penn State SGP
- Penn State -3.5
- Kaytron Allen Over 68.5 rushing yards
- Nicholas Singleton anytime TD
- Dakorien Moore anytime TD
Oregon vs Penn State odds
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 | Penn State -3.5
- Moneyline: Oregon +146 | Penn State -178
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
Oregon vs Penn State trend to know
No matter the opponents being Nevada, FIU, and FCS-level Villanova, it should be noted that Penn State has not given up a touchdown this season unless there was a minute or less remaining in the game. And two such touchdowns are the only reasons two Overs have cashed in three Nittany Lions’ games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Penn State.
How to watch Oregon vs Penn State
| Location | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date | Saturday, September 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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