Ohio State vs Michigan Best Bets, Predictions & Picks for Today, November 29

With the College Football Playoff shaping the sport, some rivalries have lost a bit of their punch. You might even question whether Ohio State feels that way with a first-round bye virtually secured.

But there’s no chance of that. The Buckeyes haven’t toppled Michigan since 2019, and the chaos after last year’s upset is still fresh. Few rivalries burn hotter than this one.

Let's get into our Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions ahead of kickoff at 12pm ET on Saturday, November 29.

Ohio State vs Michigan Week 15 predictions

• Michigan +10.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
• Under 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
• Jeremiah Smith 80+ receiving yards (+100 at FanDuel)

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Ohio State vs Michigan best bets

Michigan +10.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

The most precise question is, can Michigan score enough to stay within 10 points of Ohio State?

Grinding this game to a halt will help that cause, simply lowering Ohio State’s output. But so will the Wolverines’ respectable offense. There is no ideal way to attack the Buckeyes defense, but finding an explosive passing play or two, as absurd as that thought sounds when tied to Michigan, should keep the Wolverines within striking range and within this spread.

/ Under 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Expect this game to be bogged down. Ryan Day has a bad habit of playing conservatively when the stakes rise, and despite Ohio State’s firm postseason positioning, the stakes are massive as the Buckeyes look for their first win in this series since 2019.

Ohio State vs Michigan prop pick

Jeremiah Smith 80+ receiving yards (+100 at FanDuel)

With all the success Ohio State has had recently, it’s easy to forget that the Buckeyes have lost The Game against hated Michigan in four consecutive seasons, with the Wolverines winning three of those games as outright underdogs.

(Don’t worry, those in Ann Arbor will be quick to remind you.)

Ohio State is the favorite once again. This time around, it’s 10.5 points.  Now, that didn’t matter last year when the Buckeyes were 19.5-point chalk, and the Wolverines won a 13-10 slobber knocker of a game.

But what gives me pause about Michigan’s chances to pull off the upset this time around is its ability to do what it did last year. And that’s relying on its defense to shut a team like the Buckeyes down.

Michigan enters this game with an 8-2 record, but necessarily hasn’t necessarily looked that good. Just look at the spreads. The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, with four of those being unable to cover by double digits.

The problem is the Wolverines' pass defense. Teams have been able to throw on them all season long. Even New Mexico threw for over 200 yards against them. As a result, Michigan ranks 84th in success rate on dropbacks. And now they have to deal with Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and the Buckeys' passing game.

Ohio State leads the nation in EPA per dropback and success rate on dropbacks, and that’s without Smith lighting the world on fire.

When you ask most people, they’ll tell you the best player in college football is Smith. But the Buckeyes’ wideout has a modest 902 yards and 10 touchdowns.

But I’m betting that Smith and Co., this is the time to peak. He has topped the century mark in two of the last three games and has had 97 or more in three of the last four. So, give me Smith to go for 80+ receiving yards at even money. Something he’s done six times this season.

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