Many rivalry games no longer carry the weight they once did, as the College Football Playoff takes priority. One might wonder if the Ohio State Buckeyes feel that way, already certain they have secured a first-round bye.
Rest assured, there is no chance of that. The Buckeyes have not beaten the Michigan Wolverines since 2019. The brawl at midfield to end last year’s upset still rings loudly. This is as heated a rivalry as college football has.
My Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions know better than to assume anything in a rivalry, so we'll stay away from either distinct side. They do, however, recognize the Wolverines’ greatest weakness. Get our college football picks before the 12 p.m. kickoff on Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State vs Michigan prediction
Ohio State vs Michigan best bet: Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards (-114)
The Michigan Wolverines have made a conscious choice all season long to allow passing successes to prevent explosive pass plays. That may sound counterintuitive, but it is a rather standard practice. Consider it a “bend, don’t break” approach.
This was apparent as early as Week 1, when New Mexico found success on 43% of its dropbacks but managed only two explosive pass plays. For some further context, remember that a successful pass play keeps a team on pace for a first down, while an explosive passing play is typically one of at least 16 yards.
Michigan does not mind an opponent inching forward as long as it does not find a chunk gain. Thus, the Wolverines rank No. 84 in the country in defensive dropback success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, but No. 13 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
That allowance will backfire against the best passing offense in the country. The Ohio State Buckeyes will take those modest gains, all while setting up explosive plays.
The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in both dropback success rate and EPA, all while dropping back 5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, the 30th-highest relative rate in the country.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has cleared this prop in just six games this season, but when he has cleared it, he has actually topped 300 yards all six times. The Buckeyes have an explosive tendency at all times. Gifting them modest successes, too, will simply buoy Sayin’s Heisman candidacy.
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Ohio State vs Michigan same-game parlay
As bad as Michigan's passing defense has been this season, Ohio State's entire defense has been that good. Matt Patricia has proved all doubters, including yours truly, very wrong in his debut season as the Buckeyes' defensive coordinator. There is little-to-no reason to expect any offensive production from Michigan, and given the vitriol in this rivalry, even a late score threatening this team total should be far from a concern.
Ohio State vs Michigan SGP
- Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards
- Jeremiah Smith Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Michigan team total Under 16.5
Our deep-ball SGP: A snail's pace
No one should expect Michigan to win this for a fifth year in a row. That would be a claim too bold. But Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore knows his best route to victory is to slow this game down. Let Ohio State complete short passes and hope for slight mistakes. Chew up the clock. Stay within a possession.
Ohio State vs Michigan SGP
- Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards
- Jeremiah Smith Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Michigan team total Under 16.5
- Michigan +10.5
Ohio State vs Michigan odds
- Spread: Ohio State -10.5 | Michigan +10.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State -400 | Michigan +315
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Ohio State vs Michigan trend to know
As of kickoff, Ohio State will have gone 2,192 days without beating Michigan, despite being favored by a touchdown or more in three of those four matchups. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Michigan.
How to watch Ohio State vs Michigan
| Location | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Saturday, November 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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