It’s the FCS facing off with the FBS tonight as the Murray State Racers (1-0) meet the Louisville Cardinals (1-0) for the 21st time in this in-state rivalry.
The Racers crushed Presbyterian 41-10 in their season home opener, while Louisville dug out from a 15-point halftime hole to win its ACC home opener over Georgia Tech.
I dive into the college football odds with some free college football picks and predictions for Murray State vs. Louisville on Thursday, September 7.
Murray State vs Louisville best odds
Murray State vs Louisville picks and predictions
Louisville entered the visiting locker room staring down a 15-point halftime deficit to Georgia Tech in Week 1. The Cardinals needed their defense to step up at home, and the group responded by allowing just six second-half points. Head Coach Jeff Brohn earned his first win as the top shot-caller on the Louisville sidelines, and the Cardinals won a big one on the road.
Brohm told reporters after the game, “I challenged the guys at halftime to play much harder, much tougher, just figure out a way to grind this thing out,” Brohm said.
The Cardinals responded with 26 fourth-quarter points, the defense shut down the Georgia Tech offense, and Louisville opened their 2023 ACC campaign with a huge road victory.
Purdue transfer QB Jack Plummer is the leader of the Cardinals' offense. He threw for 247 yards, three scoring strikes, and one interception. Wideout Jamari Thrash was on the receiving end of two of those TD passes, and the two, along with wide receiver Kevin Coleman, should feast on the undersized Murray State defense.
The Cardinals rushed for 227 yards against Georgia Tech. Running back Jawhar Jordan scampered for a game-high 96 yards, Plummer scrambled for another 51, and Louisville came away with a victory.
Murray State held a slim seven-point halftime lead and outscored the Blue Hose 24-0 over the final two stanzas to secure their first win of the season. The Racers were tagged with nine penalties for 85 yards, but Murray State got the job done on both sides of the ball.
Louisville has a considerable size advantage over Murray State. They will win the battle of the trenches on both sides of the ball, and it will be difficult for the Racers to keep the Cardinals from lighting up the scoreboard. The Cardinals' defense came through in the second half, but they didn’t always look sharp, and I believe Murray State could score at least two TDs Thursday night.
The Racers used three QBs against the Blue Hose, and that trend will likely continue on Thursday. QBs Eric Phoenix and DJ Williams each threw TD passes to wideout Taylor Shields, and we should expect Murray State to deploy three running backs with 40+ yards each to put in some work.
The Louisville offense should get the job done, and I expect Murray State to catch the Cardinals' stoppers sleeping. That should send this game Over the total of 55 at BetRivers.
My best bet: Over 55 (-110 at BetRivers)
Murray State vs Louisville same-game parlay
Over 55
Murray State +41.5
We already discussed why I expect Thursday's game to end Over the total, but if anyone covers the spread in this matchup, it will be Murray State.
The Racers are 2-1 ATS in their four previous meetings, including covering a 49.5-point spread in 2017.
Murray State has a solid ground game. Six running backs combined for 231 rushing yards on 44 attempts against the Blue Hose.
The Cardinals allowed 227 rushing yards in their season opener. If Murray State can run the football successfully, and I believe they will, the Racers will cover the spread.
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Murray State vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
Louisville is favored by 41.5 over Murray State, an FCS program.
The Cardinals currently have a five-game home winning streak and boast the ninth-longest winning streak among their FBS peers. The Cardinals are also 5-1 ATS over their past six contests at Cardinal Stadium.
Louisville went 1-for-9 on third down conversions against Georgia Tech. Murray State went 8-for-15 in their home opener against Presbyterian.
Murray State finished the 2022 season with an 0-10 record. They were 4-6-0 ATS and 4-5-1 to the Under.
The Racers' last FBS victory was against the Cardinals in 1984 at the former Cardinals Stadium located at the Fairgrounds.
Louisville holds a 14-6 career head-to-head mark over Murray State.
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Murray State vs Louisville betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Racers' last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more college football betting trends for Murray State vs Louisville.
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Murray State vs Louisville game info
| Location: | L&N Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Thursday, September 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACCN |
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