The Minnesota Golden Gophers head west for a non-conference tilt with the California Golden Bears on Saturday night in Week 3.
Both offenses have been left for dead by the oddsmakers, but is it an overreaction?
See why I’m buying the dip in the total with my Minnesota vs. Cal predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
Minnesota vs California prediction
Minnesota vs California best bet: Over 41.5 (-110)
One might look at the Minnesota Golden Gophers’ defensive metrics through two weeks and assume they’re the second coming of the ‘85 Bears. Not so fast, my friend.
Minnesota is PFF’s highest graded overall defense and ranks second in both EPA per play and success rate allowed, but consider who those numbers were accumulated against.
Buffalo is a MAC school that hangs its hat on its defense and still couldn’t pass against an FCS team in Week 2, and Northwestern State finished 0-12 last season while scoring 12.0 points per game.
It’s a fine defense, but not the elite one it’s being cracked up to be. Teams will be able to throw on them as they’re still breaking in two new corners and two new defensive ends. California Golden Bears true frosh quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is the real deal, and he’ll find a few openings here at home.
On the flip side, Cal’s secondary is a question mark and will be tested. Whether or not Minnesota has star running back Darius Taylor available for this contest, the Gophers should be able to move the ball in what is far from a difficult matchup.
Minnesota vs California same-game parlay
Jacob De Jesus has been Sagapolutele’s go-to target in the passing game, leading Cal with 14 targets. He’s been one of the best return men in college football for a few years now and has already forced three missed tackles after his 10 receptions, so he’s a veritable threat with the ball in his hands.
Redshirt freshman Jalen Smith looks like the WR1 of the future for Minnesota after leading the team with nine targets for 76 yards and a touchdown in the opener.
Minnesota vs California SGP
- Over 41.5
- Jacob De Jesus Over 39.5 receiving yards
- Jalen Smith anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: It's JKA time
- It’d be a surprise if Cal can run the ball with much consistency, so I expect Sagapolutele to test the green Minnesota cornerbacks repeatedly.
Minnesota vs California SGP
- Over 41.5
- Jacob De Jesus Over 39.5 receiving yards
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Jalen Smith anytime touchdown
Minnesota vs California odds
- Spread: Minnesota -2.5 (-120) | California +2.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -144 | California +120
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Minnesota vs California trend to know
Cal has hit the Over in seven of its last eight games against the Big Ten. Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs California.
How to watch Minnesota vs California
| Location | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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