Did you feel better or worse after Lane Kiffin apologized "to all the gamblers" after Mississippi so deftly allowed Kentucky to slip through a backdoor cover? It certainly did not help the bankroll.
But the most important skill in sports gambling is being good at losing. Really good at losing.
Going 2-3 with my college football predictions last week for a second straight losing week in this column, dropping the season tally to 6-9 for -3.3 units, is all quite frustrating. But the fact of the matter is, if Mississippi and Navy had simply gotten off their buses on time, it would have been an excellent week.
That is not a coping mechanism. It is an acknowledgement that all too often, proper handicaps are spoiled by 18- to 23-year-olds. This is the life we choose here. If it were easy, everyone would be hitting their college football best bets.
Anyway, some Week 3 college football picks...
College football predictions Week 3
Houston -4 (-110)
Oregon -27.5 & Under 48.5 (+360)
Aguilar u203.5 pass yds (-106)
Minnesota -2.5 (-110)
Duke ML (+100)
Houston -4
There was strong consideration given here to taking the Colorado team total Under 20.5, best available at -120 at FanDuel. Straying from that should not be taken as an endorsement of the Buffaloes’ new starting quarterback, Ryan Staub. Then again, has Deion Sanders named the former third-stringer his starter yet?
Sanders is merely playing games with the media, as he likes to do in order to convey a put-upon mentality. Bringing in Staub last week to turn a win over Delaware into a rout over Delaware was unexpected, but he then went 7 of 10 for 157 yards and two touchdowns on two drives.
The pertinent note from that showing, for this moment, is that Staub could lead a garbage-time drive to crack 20.5 points. Instead, let’s focus on the Houston Cougars at -4 on Friday night.
One of the few criticisms that can be levied at Cougars’ head coach Willie Fritz is that he is so committed to the run that he will rely upon it even when he does not have the offensive line or the backfield for that approach. Houston is better than it was in his arrival season a year ago, but it is far from properly ready for Fritz’s run-heavy approach.
That is, unless the Cougars are facing the Buffaloes. Georgia Tech proved in Week 1 that physical offenses can still dictate terms against the Buffaloes on a football field.
Houston will not need to string together many quality drives given its penchant for converting quality drives this season. The Cougars have averaged 5.0 points per quality drive through two games.
No matter how those opponents (Stephen F. Austin and Rice) compare to Colorado, that kind of efficiency where it matters most is a credit to the offense. And for what it is worth, Rice’s defense is not atrocious.
If Houston puts together five or six quality drives, it should be in strong position to cover this short number no matter how Staub fares in the final minutes.
Oregon -27.5 & Under 48.5
Everyone knows the Oregon Ducks will score. Dante Moore increasingly looks like a quarterback that could make some November or December noise.
Last week, seven different Ducks scored eight different offensive touchdowns in that embarrassment of the Losing Mike Gundys. That was an equal opportunity evisceration on Dan Lanning’s behalf.
Oklahoma State’s defense is analytically worse than Northwestern, but there is a rather simple thought that any defense that is not genuinely good will be unable to stop the Ducks.
Oregon scored 55 offensive points while trying to settle a grudge after Gundy ran his mouth all week. Wildcats’ head coach David Braun may be subtly on a hot seat of his own, but he is not so dumb as to tick off Lanning and Oregon like Gundy was.
Me to Mike Gundy the rest of the season: https://t.co/OTCWYuXzMl pic.twitter.com/6VGfKYy41s
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2025
Do not expect the Ducks to pile on needlessly. The question with both this spread and this total becomes, can Northwestern score?
Without sixth-year running back Cam Porter (18 carries for a 7.6 yards average and a touchdown this season), that becomes even less likely. And on the shores of Lake Michigan, it must be doubted further.
In six total games at the temporary stadium, five Unders have cashed in regulation.
Given that the Wildcats may be lucky to score seven points, this is an aggressive approach to expecting Oregon to ease up in the second half. A more conservative thought would be to bet the Ducks at -27.5 to win a unit and then to also put half a unit on this same-game parlay.
Joey Aguilar Under 203.5 passing yards
Georgia and Kirby Smart know how to defend Tennessee and Josh Heupel’s offense. Smart trusts his defensive backs in one-on-one coverage, rightfully so, and the Vols’ wide alignments and one-cut routes become less effective.
That turns the Volunteers increasingly one-dimensional, and their running game has never been good enough to carry the offense on its own.
Case in point: Tennessee has fallen short of its team total in all four matchups between Smart and Heupel.
Few annual matchups have been as one-sided as Kirby Smart vs. Josh Heupel.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 10, 2025
Georgia has covered the spread in all four meetings.
Tennessee has fallen short of its Team Total in all four meetings.
Remove garbage time, short by 10 pts/g.
Georgia vs Tennessee should remain one-sided pic.twitter.com/TYOdULuwfa
Further evidence: The Vols have moved well backward on their average dropback in the last three meetings, their best showing coming last season with a loss of 0.18 expected points per dropback. Each of the last three meetings have featured Tennessee passing success rates between 41% and 44%, tenable rates if combined with explosive plays.
But the Volunteers cannot find those explosive plays against the Bulldogs, not if their lives depended on it. In 106 total dropbacks in the last three meetings, Tennessee has managed exactly one explosive passing play in each game.
Without those chunk yards, Aguilar should fall short of 200 yards.
No, do not consider pairing this with Aguilar’s Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns prop, even though the Vols have not thrown a touchdown pass in the last three meetings against Georgia. That same-game parlay pays only +110, hardly worth the risk of the additional leg.
Minnesota -2.5
For the rest of the month, approach the Minnesota Golden Gophers with a simple thought: They have a complete roster aside from some offensive line worries.
Yes, that is very much a sentiment usually met with a response of, “Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”
But Minnesota will not always face a quality defensive front. And when it doesn’t, Minnesota can be trusted.
Cal’s defense is not outright bad, not by any means, but it is not a stout enough one to overrule the overall quality of the Gophers, especially not with such a short spread.
Duke moneyline
Do not overreact to the Duke Blue Devils' gaffes that turned into a blowout loss to Illinois last week.
Aside from five turnovers, the Blue Devils outplayed the Illini. While that is a second massive “aside” in two straight best bets, there is no reason to expect those turnovers to be replicated this weekend.
The short road underdog has always held value in this matchup, but factoring in Darian Mensah’s return to Tulane, that value escalates.
Duke’s defensive line complements Mensah’s offense well, and that combination warrants continued faith even after last week’s costly debacle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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