The night slate is a doozy in Week 3 with a handful of intriguing matchups on the board, so let’s dive into some player props.
Will Arkansas move the ball on Ole Miss this year? Is the “Jeremiyah Love for Heisman” hype dead after just one defeat? Which timeshare back should we target for an Under?
Find out with my three favorite player props and college football picks for the evening slate on Saturday, September 13.
Best college football player props for Week 3
Washington o56.5 rushing yards (-114)
Love o76.5 rushing yards (-114)
Adaway III u47.5 rushing yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: Mike Washington Over 56.5 rushing yards
One of the best games of the night slate occurs in Oxford, where the Arkansas Razorbacks face the Mississippi Rebels. With a total of 62.5, the expectation is for points — and I agree with that sentiment.
Arkansas has a chance to establish a strong line of scrimmage for the first time in a while in this matchup against a Mississippi team that has regressed on both its offensive and defensive lines.
The Rebels were one of the saltiest teams in the nation against the rush last year, allowing just 2.3 yards per carry, but this year that number is up to 5.0 despite facing two poor offenses (Georgia State, Kentucky).
They’ve already allowed 363 rushing yards and two rushing scores, which would’ve been unimaginable a year ago. It’s not that this is a bad defense; it’s just not up to par with last year’s numbers, and the books will take a bit to adjust.
New Mexico State transfer running back Mike Washington was the story of Arkansas’ offseason, and thus far, he’s looked as good as advertised, racking up 221 yards from scrimmage on 11.1 yards per touch while finding the end zone twice.
He stands to benefit against a Rebels defense that ranks 127th in EPA per rush allowed and has gotten little push up front (130th in line yards, 130th in stuff rate).
- Matchup: Arkansas vs. Mississippi
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 13 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #2: Jeremiyah Love Over 76.5 Rushing Yards
There’s no way you can bet the running back who was last seen handling only 10 carries for 33 yards in a nationally televised game against Miami, right? Wrong. I’m buying low on Jeremiyah Love, the most talented running back in the country.
Love eclipsed 76.5 rushing yards in eight of his first 13 contests of 2024 despite dealing with a knee injury. Without Riley Leonard there to steal so many carries, Love’s workload will increase in 2025, and his rushing yards will go up in accordance.
The Texas A&M Aggies have a lot of talent, but their defensive front is not on par with Miami’s. The Aggies rank 134th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 99th in tackling grade (per PFF) despite having faced two Group of 5 schools, UTSA and Utah State.
Now, just what do you think Love will do, playing for a ticked off Notre Dame Fighting Irish group returning home after a bye week and with something to prove?
Love averaged 4.39 yards after contact per attempt last season and should be seen breaking through A&M’s tackles en route to chunk yardage. While he went to his patented hurdle move too frequently against Miami, it’d be a surprise if he doesn’t make a few highlights out of the Aggies' defense.
- Matchup: Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC/Peacock
Prop bet #3: Oscar Adaway III Under 47.5 Rushing Yards
There was some drama in Columbia this offseason as Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks awaited word on whether or not Utah State transfer running back Rahsul Faison would be granted another year of eligibility. The drama lasted right up to the start of the season, when Faison was given clearance for the opener against Virginia Tech.
The team has been slow to play him in Columbia, giving him 12 carries compared to 21 for veteran Oscar Adaway III. That deviation of carries should even out sooner rather than later, and Faison will likely become the RB1A.
He’s simply the more effective back, averaging 4.8 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A) compared to 3.0 for Adaway. A year ago, Faison broke 69 tackles with 3.9 YCO/A while Adaway lagged behind with 10 missed tackles forced and 2.8 YCO/A.
With arguably the sport's most dangerous rushing quarterback (LaNorris Sellers) also in the fold, volume is a significant question mark for Adaway. The Gamecocks are facing the Vanderbilt Commodores, whose MO is to slow the game down as much as possible to limit possessions, which decreases statistical output for their opponents.
When opportunity and effectiveness are both question marks, I tend to side with the Under. That’s what I’ll choose to do with Adaway in Week 3.
- Matchup: Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 13 at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium
- TV: SEC Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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