After a weekend where we correctly handed out a pair of upsets, we’re back with another trio of underdog college football picks for Week 3.
Our plays have a little ACC flair, and we explain why Georgia Tech is one of our teams to key on for this week’s upset specials.
CFB Week 3 upset picks
Jacksonville State (+140)
Old Dominion (+220)
Georgia Tech (+128)
Jacksonville State moneyline
I’m struggling to understand how the Georgia Southern Panthers are favored in this game. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks were bet down earlier in the week to +115 and rebounded to +155 on Wednesday afternoon, where I was thankful to get them.
Jacksonville State ranks 21st in EPA/rush according to GameOnPaper, and will be facing a Georgia Southern defense ranked 133rd in that metric. In fact, the Panthers rank 133rd or worse on defense in EPA/pass, available yards allowed, early down EPA/play, and average third down distance to gain.
And the Panthers rank in the Bottom 5 nationally in success rate against both the pass and the run, with opponents having a 61.6% success rate per rushing play. That’s terrific news for the Gamecocks, who have posted a 45.4% success rate on rushing plays against Liberty and UCF.
I get that Georgia Southern’s schedule has featured two strong opponents in Fresno State and USC. But the Bulldogs rushed for 351 yards on 45 carries, and there’s not a massive difference between their talent and what Jacksonville State can unleash.
Cam Cook is a terrific running back who ran for 195 yards and two scores last week against Liberty. And Gavin Wimsatt is a dual-threat quarterback who will hurt the Eagles with his legs.
Georgia Southern’s offense isn’t that good, and it won’t be able to take advantage of a questionable Jacksonville State defense enough to keep pace. The Gamecocks will pound the rock all night and come away with the victory.
Old Dominion moneyline
Brent Pry is under immense pressure in Blacksburg, and the Old Dominion Monarchs would love nothing more than to pile onto a rival with an upset. After all, the Monarchs defeated the Hokies in Pry’s very first game in charge back in 2022.
That win came at home, but going on the road won’t be new for the Monarchs. They traveled to Bloomington to open the season and punched Indiana in the mouth with a 75-yard touchdown on the game’s opening play, before ultimately losing 27-13.
I’m not going to pretend Old Dominion is the more talented team, or that the Monarchs hold a superior statistical advantage. But I’ve seen serious warning signs that the Virginia Tech Hokies are simply not in a good spot.
The second-half capitulation last week against Vanderbilt was a sight to behold. Giving up 34 unanswered points at home has alarm bells ringing, as does allowing 262 rushing yards on 37 carries.
But it was the 21 yards of offense after halftime that really made me wonder what’s happening with this team. They now come into this game with multiple concerns along the offensive line, including at left tackle.
Old Dominion ranks in the Top 15 nationally in EPA/rush, and Colton Joseph showed against the Hoosiers what he can do if given space. Virginia Tech’s defense ranks among the worst in college football so far this season in terms of explosive play rate, another red flag against a Monarch offense that ranks in the Top 30 in explosive run rate.
Virginia Tech has lost five of its 13 home games as an outright favorite since Pry took over. His seat is going to be white-hot after it happens again.
Georgia Tech moneyline
The confirmation of the status of Haynes King on Thursday makes this one a must-play for me. That’s because the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will have the best quarterback in this game.
The Yellow Jackets have looked impressive on offense this season, posting Top 25 marks in EPA/pass, rushing success rate, and net EPA/drive. They’re ranked Top 10 in explosive play rate as well, posting big plays both through the air and on the ground.
Clemson’s offense has been very poor, despite playing Troy last week. The Tigers needed a second-half comeback to avoid an embarrassing loss, but still rank 129th in EPA/rush and have one of the lowest explosive run rates in college football.
The Tigers are also not performing to their usual standard defensively. They rank 76th in run success and 84th in pass success, and just 54th in first-down success rate.
But perhaps the biggest reason I’m backing the upset is third-down performance. Clemson ranks 100th in late-down success on offense, and 104th on defense. If you can’t get off the field on third down, and you can’t extend drives, it’s hard to beat a good team.
The Yellow Jackets are going to run the ball as often as they can, and it’s going to lead to success. King and Jamal Haynes are both going to have strong days against a Clemson front seven that has been fairly poor.
Georgia Tech will extend drives while wearing down the Clemson defense. If Klubnik can’t figure things out and match them, this game will get away from the Tigers quickly.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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