Today marks the 107th meeting in one of college football’s oldest rivalries as Michigan faces Minnesota at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET on FOX, with the Wolverines favored by 5.5 points.
Having won the last six matchups, Michigan is backed in my Michigan vs. Minnesota prediction and college football picks to keep the Little Brown Jug in Ann Arbor.
TOP PICK
Who will win Michigan vs Minnesota today? Pick: Michigan -5.5
The Michigan vs. Minnesota rivalry has been an ugly one for the Golden Gophers.
Minnesota has won the Little Brown Jug just four times since 1968, while Michigan has taken it home on 44 different occasions (Michigan has covered in nine of the last 12 matchups).
And though the Wolverines are coming off a tough loss to Iowa, I like them to cover -5.5 or better because of their defense. Michigan's stop unit ranks eighth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per pass, and 16th in available yards percentage (33.6%).
Minnesota's inability to run the ball (103rd in EPA per rush) will put a lot on quarterback Drake Lindsey's plate, and his lack of mobility could be an issue against the Wolverines.
Michigan's pass rush (assuming Dom Nichols and John Henry Daley play) is one of the best in the country, already boasting 12 sacks and 71 pressures.
COVERS INTEL: Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck is 0-4 with the Little Brown Jug on the line and 1-3 ATS in those matchups, losing by an average score of 40.2 to 17.Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Michigan vs Minnesota Over/Under pick: Under 43.5
The Little Brown Jug game has hit the Over nine straight times, but Michigan's style of play should help break the trend, though I would only play the Under at 42.5 or better.
The Wolverines have yet to score more than 19 points in a Power Four game this season, and they've yet to give up more than 20 points in any of their games, allowing just 14.8 ppg.
Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked No. 9 by SP+, but Minnesota has a pretty ferocious defense too. The Golden Gophers rank sixth nationally in havoc rate (23.7%) and should force QB Bryce Underwood into mistakes (his 5.4% turnover-worthy play rate is among the highest in the country).
I predict the Wolverines to win 23-17.
Michigan vs Minnesota combo
Minnesota has long struggled to win the Little Brown Jug, and nothing has changed since Fleck took over. The Golden Gophers have kept the game within 20 points just once in the four matchups under Fleck.
With both defenses ranking in the top 35 in net EPA per play, I'm expecting a slow, grind-it-out first half before Michigan pulls away late. Look for Wolverines wide receiver JJ Buchanan to be the X-factor.
While this is Kyle Whittingham's first time in the rivalry, he's no stranger to winning rivalry games. As Utah's head coach, Whittingham went 11-6 in the Holy War against BYU.
Michigan vs Minnesota combo
- Michigan -5.5
- Under 43.5
- First-half Under 21.5
Michigan vs Minnesota prop: Minnesota team total Under 18.5
Minnesota is averaging just 20 ppg against Power Four opponents, and Michigan's defense is by far the best it has faced this season. If Lindsey gets pressured, the Gophers could really struggle to move the ball with consistency.
The Wolverines' defense is No. 8 in net EPA per play and No. 20 in pass success (37.4%), and will likely be focused on stopping the pass with how lackluster Minnesota's run game has been this season.
An offense ranked 67th in success rate (45.2%) and 91st in net adjusted EPA per play is going to have trouble scoring more than 17 on Michigan.
I like the Under on Minnesota's team total at 17.5 or better.
- Top picks: 10-6, +2.88 units
- Combos: 4-12, -1.14 units
Michigan vs Minnesota market trends
Here's a look at how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today's Michigan vs. Minnesota battle for the Little Brown Jug. Expect the trading volume to pick up through the morning, with the smart money coming in closest to kickoff.
Michigan vs Minnesota odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Michigan -5.5 | Minnesota +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (50%) | Under 43.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Michigan 66% | Minnesota 34%
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Michigan vs Minnesota weather
Saturday in Minneapolis is expected to be mild, with temperatures around 60°F at kickoff and southerly winds of 10-15 mph. The weather should have no impact on this year's contest.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Michigan vs Minnesota trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Minnesota's last eight home games. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs. Minnesota.
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How to watch Michigan vs Minnesota
| Location | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | FOX |
Michigan vs Minnesota latest injuries
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