Michigan vs Minnesota Picks & Props
MICH vs MINN Picks
NCAAF PicksMinnesota's inconsistent run game (103rd in EPA per rush) and Drake Lindsey's lack of mobility could be a problem against Michigan. The Wolverines are 17th nationally in available yards percentage (33.6%) and have allowed more than 17 points just once in four games. If the Wolverines' pass rush pressures Lindsey, the Golden Gophers will have a hard time scoring more than 17.
The Over has hit in the Little Brown Jug game nine straight times, but I think that changes this year. Michigan has yet to score more than 19 points against a Power Four opponent, and it's yet to allow more than 20 points in four games. Minnesota is similarly a defense-first team, ranking 33rd nationally in EPA per play on defense, but just 84th in EPA per play on offense.
While Michigan is coming off a walk-off loss to Iowa and Minnesota just beat Washington, the Wolverines have dominated the Little Brown Jug series. Michigan is 44-4 against Minnesota since 1968, and the Wolverines have covered in 9 of the last 12 matchups. I'm expecting Kyle Whittingham to have Michigan motivated to bounce back, and for Gophers QB Drake Lindsey to struggle against this defense. I like the Wolverines to cover -5.5 or better.
With the Little Brown Jug on the line and the talent on these defenses, I'm expecting an ugly start between Michigan and Minnesota. Points will be hard to come by all game, with both defenses ranking top 35 in net EPA per play, but the Wolverines' talent advantage should be the difference in the second half. Michigan receiver JJ Buchanan will be the X-factor in a low-scoring game.
MICH vs MINN Consensus Picks
MICH vs MINN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
MINN
D. Lindsey
(QB)
u217.5 Passing Yards
198.59 UNDER
PROJECTION
-18.9
DIFFERENCE
24.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
u195.5 Passing Yards
184.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-11.2
DIFFERENCE
21.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
D. Taylor
(RB)
o40.5 Rushing Yards
56.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.5
DIFFERENCE
26.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
o33.5 Rushing Yards
45.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.1
DIFFERENCE
25.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MICH
J. Marshall
(RB)
o46.5 Rushing Yards
54.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
24.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MINN
T. Thomas
(RB)
o26.5 Rushing Yards
30.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
22.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MICH
A. Marsh
(WR)
o56.5 Receiving Yards
73.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.4
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MINN
J. Tracy
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
61.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
25.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MICH
J. Marshall
(RB)
o3.5 Receiving Yards
6.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
25.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MINN
T. Thomas
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
15.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.7
DIFFERENCE
25.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MICH
J. Buchanan
(WR)
o71.5 Receiving Yards
84.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.5
DIFFERENCE
24.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MINN
N. Jennings
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
53.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.1
DIFFERENCE
14.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MINN
P. Walsh
(TE)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
9.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MINN
J. Smith
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
2.84 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MINN
N. Jennings
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MICH
J. Buchanan
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions
4.99 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
6.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MINN
J. Tracy
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
1.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
D. Taylor
(RB)
o12.5 Carries
14.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
16.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
MICH
J. Marshall
(RB)
o10.5 Carries
11.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
12.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
o10.5 Carries
11.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.5
DIFFERENCE
8.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
MICH
B. Underwood
(QB)
u16.5 Completions
14.72 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
18.93%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in Wolverines last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
Under is 7-1 in Golden Gophers last 8 home games.
Golden Gophers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wolverines are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Minnesota.
Under is 6-1 in Wolverines last 7 games as an underdog.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.