Lane Kiffin's return to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) is the biggest storyline of Week 3, as he leads LSU against his former program, Ole Miss.
The Tigers are a 2.5-point road favorite, and my LSU vs. Ole Miss combos and college football picks back Kiffin to pull off the win because of his team's defensive advantage on Sept. 19.
Best LSU vs Ole Miss combos
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LSU vs Ole Miss combo
The Magnolia Bowl is the No. 1-ranked must-watch matchup in my Week 3 college football Top 25 prediction because of Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford. However, it's LSU's defense that stands out as the key to the game.
Under coordinator Blake Baker, the Tigers have the No. 2-ranked defense in the country by SP+. Its front seven is one of the most disruptive in college football, ranking third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%) and Top 10 in both EPA per pass and rush.
Led by former Ole Miss star Princewill Umanmielen, LSU has racked up 48 pressures in just two games and should be able to get after Trinidad Chambliss. That means Chambliss will need to be nearly flawless, especially with how questionable the Rebels' defense has looked.
Ole Miss' defense ranks third-to-last in the SEC in havoc rate (15.5%) and could struggle to slow LSU in the second half. Once the Tigers' offenses settle into what will be a rowdy atmosphere, I have them winning 29-24 as my LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction.
LSU vs Ole Miss player prop combo
Though I expect this year's Magnolia Bowl to follow the LSU vs. Ole Miss rivalry trend of hitting the Under (it's cashed in four of the last five matchups), I do expect both QBs to be the focal points of their offenses.
With LSU's defense ranking seventh nationally in EPA per rush, Kewan Lacy could have a hard time finding space in the run game, which will mean Ole Miss leaning on Chambliss' arm. In Chambliss' six starts for the Rebels against ranked opponents, including in Week 1 against Louisville, he's thrown 36+ passes five times, averaging 38.1 attempts per game.
As for Sam Leavitt, his legs are the X-factor for Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr.'s offense, especially with Ole Miss' struggles defending the run. The Rebels' defense is 110th nationally in EPA per rush, and Leavitt is No. 2 among all QBs in 10+-yard runs through two games (9).
But when LSU is in the red zone, it has a cheat code in Trey'Dez Green. The 6-foot-7 tight end has scored in seven of his last 10 games and is a goal-line fade specialist with his basketball background.
The threat of Leavitt running should help Green get one-on-one opportunities against Ole Miss.
- Combos: 0-4, -2 units
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