Plenty of people have questioned James Madison’s place in the College Football Playoff, but I’m not one of them. The Dukes earned this opportunity and would be just as competitive as several ACC teams that could’ve landed here (and yes, join a conference, Notre Dame).
That said, my James Madison vs. Oregon predictions acknowledge why JMU is a three-touchdown underdog in this first-round matchup. The Ducks are a legitimate title contender and are getting healthy at the right time for a playoff run.
My college football picks for Saturday, December 20 break down how the Ducks will eventually overwhelm the Dukes in this first-round CFP matchup.
James Madison vs Oregon predictions for the CFP First Round
Who will win James Madison vs Oregon?
Oregon. This is a really good football team that is a legit contender to win the national championship. But this is wrong place, wrong time for JMU.
James Madison vs Oregon best bet: Oregon team total Over 34.5 (-104)
Let’s get this out of way — the James Madison Dukes deserve to be here.
They won the games in front of them. And would have been favored against several ACC opponents according to S&P+, including conference champions Duke.
The Oregon Ducks were always going to be big favorites in this matchup, because they are really damn good, not because JMU is a bad team.
The Ducks enter this first-round playoff matchup with an 11-1 record, the lone loss coming to the No. 1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers. Oregon has an elite defense with strong tackling, which should limit JMU’s propensity for explosive plays.
But today, I want to focus on what makes the Ducks fly — the offense.
The first several seasons of the Dan Lanning era have been highlighted by prolific passing attacks — first with Bo Nix, and then with Dillon Gabriel. Dante Moore has shown a lot of promise this season, and the Ducks could be getting some reinforcements at wide receiver.
But these Ducks fly on the ground. Oregon has arguably the best running game in the country, one that can wear you down over the course of a game, eventually leading to hitting some home runs.
Oregon enters this game leading the nation in both EPA per rush and success rate on rushes. They use a trio of talented backs in Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr., which keeps them fresh and relentless.
Now, James Madison has a solid defense, and dominated the Sun Belt this season, but they haven’t seen anything close to this Ducks offense. The best team they played was Louisville earlier in the season, and the Cardinals rank 59th in EPA per play.
With a healthy offensive line and the potential to get their top three receivers back, a balanced Ducks offense is going to be very hard to stop. Mix in playing in front of what should be a crazy crowd in Eugene and Lanning’s willingness to run up scores, and the Over on their team total of 34.5 looks like a great play here.
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James Madison vs Oregon same-game parlay
I mentioned the trio of talented Oregon running backs. Well, my favorite is Jordon Davison. The freshman is built like a truck and has gotten stronger as the year went on.
Davison finished the season with 535 yards at 6.1 yards per carry with 444 of those yards coming in his last seven games. He’s also become the Ducks' goal-line back and has found the end zone 13 times this season.
Taking Davison to go Over his rushing prop and to score another touchdown reads right into the game script for Oregon and makes all the sense in the world for this SGP.
James Madison vs Oregon SGP
- Oregon team total Over 34.5
- Jordon Davison Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Jordon Davison anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Davison double dips
To take this deep-ball SGP to the next level, let's elevate Davison to two touchdowns. And if someone scores for JMU, it's likely going to be Wayne Knight.
James Madison vs Oregon SGP
- Oregon team total Over 34.5
- Jordon Davison Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Jordon Davison 2+ TDs
- Wayne Knight anytime TD
James Madison vs Oregon game predictions
James Madison vs Oregon spread prediction
Oregon has messed around with Group of Five teams in the past, but Lanning looks like he's on a mission this season. Obviously I like Oegon to score here, but the Ducks' ability to limit explosive plays by JMU has me thinking they'll cover this big number.
James Madison vs Oregon Over/Under prediction
That ability to limit explosive plays means I have a slight lean to the Under in this game. The Dukes haven't faced anything like this Oregon defense, and the last time they played a Power Four team, they gained just 263 yards and scored 14 points.
James Madison vs Oregon odds
- Spread: James Madison +20.5 | Oregon -20.5
- Moneyline: James Madison +1200 | Oregon -2500
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
James Madison vs Oregon trend to know
James Madison has only hit the Over in five of its last 14 games for -3.80 Units and a -25% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for James Madison vs Oregon.
How to watch James Madison vs Oregon
| Location | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date | Saturday, December 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
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