Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Best Bets, Predictions & Picks for Today, December 6

Alabama has dominated this rivalry, taking nine of the last 10 matchups — including the 2023 and 2021 conference championship games — and winning the regular-season meeting earlier this year.

But Georgia is hunting payback. The Bulldogs have ripped off eight straight victories since that defeat, while the Tide have faltered late in the season, making the Dawgs the clear favorite this time around.

Let's get into our Georgia vs. Alabama predictions before the SEC Championship kicks off at 4pm ET on Saturday, December 6.

Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship predictions

• Alabama +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
• Under 48.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
• Stockton u195.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Simpson anytime TD (+410 at FanDuel)

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Georgia vs Alabama best bets

Alabama +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

I like the Alabama Crimson Tide to win the SEC Championship, so that means I like them to cover the spread as underdogs as well. The Tide's passing game will be the difference, but don't overlook a defense that has steadily improved, ranking ninth in opponent EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate.

/ Under 48.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

I lean Under in the SEC title game, particularly in the first half. These are two excellent defensive teams, and this game will be played tight early. 

prefer the first-half Under due to Kirby Smart's ability to make halftime adjustments, but this game has all the makings of a classic SEC Under. 

Georgia vs Alabama TD pick

Ty Simpson Anytime TD (+410 at FanDuel)

Another way to get more creative without Miller — and this will be true of all teams in Playoff moments — is to involve the quarterback in the rushing game. Ty Simpson is not necessarily the most mobile of passers, but it should be noted he scored in Alabama’s first win against Georgia this season.

Yes, that was written “first win,” as in Alabama will have multiple wins against Georgia this season.

Involving the quarterback in the short-yardage rushing game is not necessarily a valid approach all season. Exposing your quarterback to added blows for four months can take a toll.

But when the stakes are this high — the Tide could conceivably miss the College Football Playoff with an ugly loss, while a convincing win may secure them a first-round bye — that toll is worthwhile.

Expect more moments of Simpson holding onto the ball to gain a personnel edge near the goal line.

Georgia vs Alabama prop pick

Gunner Stockton Under 195.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

It is not just that Georgia Bulldogs QB Gunner Stockton threw for only 130 yards in the first game against Alabama this season. It is that Smart took the ball out of Stockton’s hands. The junior quarterback had merely 20 pass attempts that night, a season low.

Some of that is a testament to the Tide defense, ranking No. 9 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, per CFB-graphs.com. Throwing against Alabama generally does not go well.

So Smart preferred not to. That is also somewhat who Smart is, typically content to shorten a game and trust his defense to eventually create an advantageous situation. That has been more of a risk than usual this year, but Smart has not yielded.

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