A pair of high-scoring teams that don't like to play defense hit the ice tonight in Toronto. It's easy to hit the button on the Over as part of my Sabres vs. Maple Leafs predictions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter Scotiabank Arena as slight 52% favorites against the Buffalo Sabres, but I favor the Over (54%), and that's where we'll invest our money tonight.
Tap into my NHL picks for Thursday, Oct. 15, and let's sweep the slate one more time.
TOP PICK
Sabres vs Maple Leafs prediction: Over 6.5
Goals are coming. Play this to 55%.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have soared Over the total in four straight games, while the Buffalo Sabres games have followed suit in back-to-back contests.
The common denominator? Both teams boast plenty of offensive firepower but give up a ton of opportunities on the back end. I love our chances of seeing goals early and often tonight; you should, too.
The Sabres rank second in the NHL in high-danger shots, while the Leafs rank 27th in expected goals against. Meanwhile, Toronto's power play has clicked at nearly a 30% rate (sixth in the NHL).
COVERS INTEL: Just how good is this Leafs power play? The unit ranks first in high-danger shots and seventh in expected goals. If the Sabres play an undisciplined brand of hockey, watch out.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs combo
Yes, we'll see goals in this matchup — just more from the Leafs, who are a flat-out better team. We'll ride with Toronto at home.
The Sabres' 30th-ranked power play isn't strong enough to keep up with Toronto's pace, fueled by Gavin McKenna. The Calder Trophy favorite has now recorded five points in his last four and has come into his own as a pro.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs combo
- Leafs moneyline
- Over 6.5
- Gavin McKenna 1+ point
Sabres vs Maple Leafs player prop: Gavin McKenna 1+ point
McKenna's ice time is slowly ticking up as he gets acclimated to the NHL, recording 17:08 against the Mammoth in his last outing — the highest usage of his young career.
When head coach Jim Hiller puts his lines in a blender or gives the rookie time on the top power-play unit, McKenna has delivered.
We won't see these prices below 50% for long, so hop in while there's still time.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
It's heat-check time for Auston Matthews, who has six points and three goals in his last two games. Matthews has found his scoring touch again and ranks 16th in the NHL in expected goals.
Playing alongside elite talent on the top line and first power-play unit gives Matthews plenty of scoring opportunities, and he's been burying converting alongside the best of them this year.
Let's see him find the back of the net one more time in what should be a high-scoring game.
- Top picks: 4-5, -0.67 units
- Combos: 5-3, +4.90 units
Sabres vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Sabres 49% | Maple Leafs 53%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (55%) | Under 6.5 (47%)
- Spread: Sabres +1.5 (69% | Maple Leafs -1.5 (32%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Sabres vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-0 in the Maple Leafs last four overall. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Sabres vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | MSG-B, TSN4 |
Sabres vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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