Georgia vs Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds for December 6 — SEC Championship

Tell me if you’ve heard this before. It’s the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide are facing off for the SEC Championship.

While these are the two premier SEC programs, it’s the Crimson Tide who’ve had the Bulldogs' number, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, including the ’23 and ’21 conference title games, and taking this year’s regular season matchup as well.

The Dawgs are out for some revenge and have won eight in a row since that loss, while the Tide have stumbled a bit down the stretch, making Georgia the favorite.

However, my Georgia vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks explain why this is creating value with Bama as an underdog on Saturday, December 6. 

Georgia vs Alabama predictions for the SEC Championship

Who will win the SEC Championship?

This should be one of the most exciting and closest games on Championship Saturday, but I’m going with Alabama. 

The Crimson Tide have an elite passing game with Ty Simpson and one of the country’s best receiving rooms. They already got the job done in Athens; now they’ll do it in the “neutral” site in Atlanta.

Georgia vs Alabama best bet: Alabama moneyline (+114)

There aren’t too many opportunities for teams to get revenge like the Georgia Bulldogs have in front of them in the SEC Championship.

Not only will they be able to avenge their only loss of the season, but they will also earn their first-ever win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in this conference championship.

Alabama won that game 24-21 as 2.5-point underdogs with Ty Simpson leading the way, throwing for 276 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. 

Since then, Georgia has rattled off eight straight wins. But they haven’t all been pretty, with some close calls against Mississippi and Florida. And while the defense has looked better as the season has gone along, the theme of that Alabama game has run true much of the year.

Good passers can move the ball on this Georgia defense. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards on the Dawgs back in September. Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss went for 263.

Heck, even a bad passer like Arch Manning threw for 251. As a result, the Bulldogs enter this game ranked 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

That’s not where you want to be against Simpson and this Bama offense. With Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton at his disposal, Simpson can pick you apart, which is why Bama ranks 12th in EPA per dropback and 13th in success rate on dropbacks. 

So, the question is, why is Alabama still a 2.5-point underdog with the SEC title game being on a neutral (for the most part) site? 

The answer is recency bias. Georgia has won eight in a row. While Alabama has stumbled down the stretch. Causal observers will say they needed some luck to win the Iron Bowl. But it was a rivalry game on the road. Things get weird in those spots, and the Tide came out on top.

Then there is the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide massively outgained the Sooners, putting up big numbers against arguably the best defense in the country, and could have easily won a game they lost 23-21.

So, I believe Alabama is getting undervalued here, and this game should be closer to a pick’em, but I’m betting Bama gets the job done and continues its dominance over Georgia.

Roll Tide.

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Georgia vs Alabama same-game parlay

There are a few reasons why this Alabama passing game is so effective. For starters, Ty Simpson has some killer accuracy and timing. But he also has great weapons at his disposal.

Everyone knows what Ryan Williams can do, but having guys like Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton out there as well makes them really dangerous, and it’s Horton I want to focus on.

Horton was a red zone machine for Simpson early in the season, scoring a touchdown in five of Alabama’s first seven games. Then he went silent for a while before busting out in the Iron Bowl, grabbing three touchdowns. I like the value on Horton finding the end zone in the SEC title game.

Now, while I like Alabama to win, I still think this game will be close, and Gunner Stockton has stepped up for Georgia when they’ve needed him to. 

Stockton has orchestrated two massive comebacks for the Bulldogs this season against Tennessee and Mississippi and has thrown multiple touchdowns six times this season, including four of his last six games overall. He’ll do it again here when his team needs him the most.

Georgia vs Alabama SGP

• Alabama moneyline
• Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
• Gunner Stockton Over 1.5 touchdown passes 

Our deep-ball SGP: Branching Out!

Zechariah Branch has come on strong in the second half of the season, catching 41 balls for 400 yards and two touchdowns. 

Georgia vs Alabama SGP

• Alabama moneyline
• Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
• Gunner Stockton Over 1.5 touchdown passes
• Zachariah Branch anytime touchdown 

Georgia vs Alabama odds

• Spread: Georgia -2.5 | Alabama +2.5
• Moneyline: Georgia -134 | Alabama +114
• Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5

Georgia vs Alabama trend to know

Alabama has covered the 1H Spread in nine of its last 13 games for +4.30 Units and a 28% ROI, while Georgia has only covered the 1H Spread in four of its last 14 games for -6.51 Units and a -40% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Alabama.

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