My Triple Option column of college football best bets is coming off its first perfect week. Now we’ll try to keep that rolling into Week 5, which is without a doubt the most exciting week on the schedule so far this season.
Oregon vs. Penn State, LSU vs. Mississippi, and Alabama vs. Georgia are the highlights. I’ve got bets for two of those, plus a moneyline dog for Friday night’s action.
And for even more college football picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 5
TCU ML (+128)
LSU-MISS 
u29.5 1H (-128)
Williams 70+ rec yds (+114)
TCU moneyline
Let’s start this week with a Friday night moneyline underdog to win outright.
I am, of course, talking about the TCU Horned Frogs as they travel to Tempe to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils. This is a matchup of two preseason conference title contenders, but I think only one of these teams deserves that moniker after a month of play. And it’s not the home team favored by a field goal.
TCU has looked really impressive so far this season, particularly QB Josh Hoover. The junior signal caller was coming off setting the school record for passing yards and has already thrown for 1,000 yards with 11 touchdowns in the Horned Frogs' first four games.
The highlights of those early-season games were embarrassing Bill Belichick and UNC in their opener and covering as 6.5-point favorites against a solid SMU team.
Meanwhile, Hoover is the QB Arizona State was hoping Sam Leavitt was going to be this season. Leavitt is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt this season, down from 8.2 from a year ago. He also has half as many interceptions (three) as he did all of last year.
This means Arizona State isn’t well-equipped to attack TCU’s biggest weakness, which is its pass defense.
But, it’s not just the offense for the Sun Devils. They rank 98th in defensive success rate and are giving up a lot of explosive plays. And you think they’re ready to slow down Hoover?
I think TCU is the better team, and the wrong team is favored here. All hail the Hypno Toads and take them to win outright.
LSU-Mississippi Under 29.5 1H
Saturday’s schedule is so good that LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels might be a little overlooked. But this is a massive matchup.
These SEC foes enter this game with matching 4-0 records and while a loss wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world at this point, a victory sets the winner up very well in the conference moving forward.
Even though LSU is ranked No. 4 in the country, it’s Mississippi that is the slight favorite in this matchup.
The Bayou Bengals may be 4-0, but they haven’t really gotten there the way we would have expected. QB Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense have struggled while the Tigers’ defense has carried this team.
Nuss just hasn’t looked right this season. Part of that is poor play on the offensive line, but he’s still got to be better. Nuss is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt and has three touchdowns and two interceptions vs. FBS opponents this season, with LSU averaging just 20 points in those wins.
They’ll face another elite Rebels defense on Saturday. Mississippi enters this game ranked third in EPA per rush and second in EPA per dropback.
On the other side, this LSU defense has been great, ranking 29th in EPA per rush and 19th in EPA per dropback. And while the Rebels have done a good job moving the ball this season, injuries mean we don’t know who is starting at QB for Mississippi as of Friday.
No matter who is under center, you know the Rebels are going to be committed to running the football. They rank 23rd in run-play percentage this season.
What I’m trying to say is that we’ve found our SEC first-half Under of the Week.
Ryan Williams 70+ receiving yards
This is an absolutely stacked card of college football action, and one of the weekend’s biggest games will take place between the hedges in Athens, where the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs will renew their hostilities.
It’s arguably been the best rivalry going in college football for the last several years, even with no more Nick Saban. Last year was no different, with the Crimson Tide holding off a furious Bulldogs comeback to win 41-34.
Now, a lot of the faces have changed this time around, including the quarterbacks. But one thing that remains the same is that Bama wideout Ryan Williams is back to terrorize the Dawgs secondary.
Williams was one of the stars in last year’s win over Georgia, catching six balls for a ridiculous 177 yards, including the game-winning 75-yard touchdown.
And after a slow start to the season for Williams, it appeared that Kalen DeBoer made a concerted effort to get his star receiver the ball in last week’s game against Wisconsin. Williams was targeted six times, catching five of them for 165 yards and two scores.
I’m betting he keeps that going against Georgia.
On paper, this is a very good Georgia defense, but we just saw Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar throw it all over the yard against them last week with his top two wideouts going for 177 and 97 yards.
Williams' receiving yards prop is sitting at just 62.5 yards. But that doesn’t feel good enough. So let’s take his alt yards of 70+ at +114.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 5
TCU moneyline
LSU-Mississippi u29.5 1H
Ryan Williams 70+ receiving yards
My Triple Option column is 7-5 so far this season for +1.28 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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