In a clash between the unbeaten and the battle-tested, Tennessee takes on Mississippi State in a pivotal conference matchup that promises both excitement and strategic intrigue for bettors.
With the Bulldogs coasting through their early schedule, Tennessee's recent heartbreak against Georgia adds an edge to this showdown.
It's been a good start to the season for the Bulldogs, albeit a bit surprising. They'll come into this matchup undefeated, but without much of a test so far this year. Tennessee would also be undefeated if it weren't for a heartbreaking loss to Georgia two weeks ago.
My Tennessee vs. Mississippi State predictions break it all down as I bring you my college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction
Tennessee vs Mississippi State best bet: Over 62.5 (-110)
For starters, the pace in this matchup should be absolutely blistering. That's nothing new for a Josh Heupel-coached team who have started this season snapping the ball, on average, with 22 seconds left on the play clock.
And now that the Bulldogs' offense looks healthy and competent under Year Two of Jeff Lebby, the two have played at warp speed.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs' defensive numbers are solid, but they are inflated by the poor competition they've faced this season.
Even with the poor competition they've faced, the explosive plays they've allowed are a story, and that will be music to the ears of the Tennessee Volunteers, which has been among the most explosive teams nationally every year under Heupel.
On the other side, I'm inclined to buy into the offensive numbers that State has put up so far this season because the eye test has backed it up. QB Blake Shapen and company should have success against a secondary that ranks in the 100s in EPA allowed per pass.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
Eventually, I think Tennessee has just too much talent here. There are few teams I would take against the Vols in a shootout, and a rebuilding Mississippi State team isn't one, thus I took Tennessee to cover here.
I finished things off with Blake Shapen to go over 256.5 passing yards with a projection of 260, and the Bulldogs having to chase the game. This feels like a reasonable ask.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State SGP
- Over 62.5
- Tennessee Volunteers -7.5
- Blake Shapen Over 256.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Bulldog Brazzell
Chris Brazzell has gotten off to a great start for the Vols so far this season, so it feels natural to take his receiving yards Over in a game featuring tons of points.
His 177-yard outburst against Georgia two weeks ago provides tons of promise moving forward. I finished things off with the first quarter, having at least 14 points behind the highly regarded offensive coaches' game planning.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State SGP
- Over 62.5
- Tennessee Volunteers -7.5
- Blake Shapen Over 265.5 passing yards
- Chris Brazzell Over 74.5 receiving yards
- First Quarter Over 13.5
Tennessee vs Mississippi State odds
- Spread: Tennessee -8.5 (-110) | Mississippi State +8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -325 | Mississippi State +250
- Over/Under: Over 62.5 (-110) | Under 62.5 (-110)
Tennessee vs Mississippi State trend to know
Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Mississippi State.
How to watch Tennessee vs Mississippi State
| Location | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Date | Saturday, September 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
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