If you saw my column last month, you now know how to build a college football power rating.
Today, I'll show you how to use those power ratings and attack the college football win totals in the smaller conferences.
Keep reading to see why the low totals for Fresno State and Eastern Michigan can be taken advantage of in 2026.
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 North Dakota State u9.5 wins |
-135 |
 Sacramento State u5.5 wins |
-160 |
 UConn u5.5 wins |
+130 |
 Fresno State o5.5 wins |
-150 |
 Eastern Michigan o5.5 wins |
-150 |
2026 Group of Five win total picks
North Dakota State Under 9.5 wins (-135 at DraftKings)
The best program in the FCS finally makes the move up to the FBS. North Dakota State won nine FCS National Championships in eleven years from 2011 to 2021. However, the Bison only averaged 9.75 wins per regular season their last four years and only won one National Championship during that time.
Not only will North Dakota State be playing a tougher schedule, but they will also lose most of their best players from last year. QB Cole Payton and WR Bryce Lance were taken in the fourth and fifth rounds of the NFL Draft last month. In addition, five different starters transferred to power conference teams.
I think NDSU is one of the better teams in the Mountain West and should have a big home-field edge in the Fargo Dome. However, the problem is that the Bison play the other four best teams in the conference (New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, and Air Force) all on the road.
North Dakota State will have to pull off a pair of upsets and also take care of business in every other game to get to 10-2. I don’t see that happening in year one of FBS play.
Sacramento State Under 5.5 wins (-160 at DraftKings)
Sacramento State is paying a total of $23 million to transition to the FBS and join the MAC as a football-only member this year. Unlike North Dakota State, which was a FCS powerhouse, Sacramento State only averaged 5.7 wins per regular season in their last three years.
Now they take a step up in schedule strength, playing in a conference that is three time zones away. Sacramento State will fly across the country five different times, logging more than 23,000 air miles this season. That could have a big impact on a depth-shy team that ranks only No. 131 in returning production and has a new head coach for the fourth time in five years.
Currently, my power ratings only project them as a clear favorite (by more than a field goal) in just two games. The Hornets will have to pull off multiple upsets to get to 6-6.
UConn Under 5.5 wins (+130 at DraftKings)
Connecticut has won eight and nine games the last two regular seasons, but I’m expecting a big drop this year. Head coach Jim Mora Jr is off to Colorado State, and the Huskies hired Jason Candle.
While Candle went 81-44 in 10 seasons at Toledo, you could argue that he was one of the most underachieving coaches in the country. In his last five seasons, Toledo lost 18 times outright as a favorite, including 12 times as a favorite of at least seven points. That was the most in the country.
This year, Connecticut returns only two starters from last year’s team. While Candle brings with him 19 transfers from Toledo, only two of them were starters last year. Connecticut only ranks No. 134 in Bill Connelly’s returning production (which accounts for incoming transfers).
The schedule sees Connecticut play three power conference teams, but also some of the better Group of Six conference teams in James Madison, Old Dominion, Miami (OH), and Air Force. My power ratings only project them to be a clear favorite in three games.
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Fresno State Over 5.5 wins (-150 at DraftKings)
Fresno State makes the move to the Pac-12 this year. Please note that this win total only accounts for the first 11 games of the season, as the Pac-12 has a flex game in the final week of the regular season.
Fresno State has won at least eight games in the regular season in four of the last five years. The Bulldogs return 13 starters from last year’s team, which is the most in the Pac-12, and they should improve in Year 2 under head coach Matt Entz.
My power ratings currently project Fresno to be a clear underdog in only two games (at USC and home vs. Boise State). I project them to be a favorite of more than a TD in five games (Sacramento State, at San Jose State, Rice, Oregon State, and Colorado State).
I think this is a dark horse contender in the Pac-12, not a team fighting for bowl eligibility.
Eastern Michigan Over 5.5 wins (-150 at DraftKings)
While Eastern Michigan has only won four and five games the last two years, they still have averaged 6.1 wins per regular season since 2016 (excludes the shortened 2020 COVID season).
This year’s team should be much improved from the last two editions. Eastern Michigan returns 12 starters from last year, by far more than anyone else in the MAC. The Eagles also rank No. 24 in Bill Connelly’s returning production, while no other MAC team ranks in the Top 70.
My power ratings currently project the Eagles to be more than a FG favorite in six different games. That’s good enough to get Over the win total while not including head coach Chris Creighton’s consistency to pull off upsets each year (12 in the last five years).
Brad Powers' college football win total betting system
Many novice bettors simply look at a schedule and start counting, "win, win, loss, win, toss-up, loss, etc." While that method can lead to a very basic win total projections, it can sometimes be inaccurate, especially for teams that have a bunch of games with single-digit projected point spreads.
I use a little more complicated method where I get a projected point spread for each game, and then assign a win percentage chance for each game coinciding with how small or large the point spread is. I then add up those 12 win percentages (decimals) and get a projected win total.
To get a projected point spread, simply subtract the two power ratings for a neutral field point spread, or subtract the two numbers while adding homefield advantage (generally around three points) for a normal game.
For example, my final power ratings for last year had Indiana No. 1 at 96.40 and Ohio State No. 2 at 92.65. Using these numbers, Indiana would be around a 3.5 to 4-point favorite vs. Ohio State on a neutral field (96.4 - 92.65 = 3.75).
Factoring in home field, you would be looking at Indiana being around at 6.5 to 7-point favorite at home vs. Ohio State, and around a 0.5-point to 1-point favorites at Ohio State. This would yield very different win percentages.
Projected point spreads near “pick-em” obviously would equate to a 50% (or 0.5 in decimal format) chance of winning. Therefore, you would give that team credit for a 0.5-win.
A 12-game schedule with every game projected at “pick-em” would yield of projected win total of 6. (0.5 times 12 = 6). In the above example, Indiana playing Ohio State or a team similar on the road all 12 games (Hoosiers again projected to be very slight 0.5 to 1-point favorites) would yield a win total projection of 6.24.
How did I get that number? Typically, 1-point favorites win about 52% of the time, so 0.52 multiplied by 12 equals 6.24.
However, if you use the example of Indiana being a 6.5 to 7-point favorite at home vs. Ohio State, you’d get a much higher projected win total.
Typically, 6.5 to 7-point favorites win about 67% of the time. Therefore, a 12-game schedule with those win percentages in each game would yield a win total projection of 8.04 (0.67 times 12 = 8.04).
Obviously, schedules aren’t that simple and will feature a wide variety of point spreads. The best way to show you how this works further would be to give you an example schedule with all different point spreads and win percentages.
|
Game |
Projected Spread |
Win % |
|
Game 1 |
-21 |
0.93 |
|
Game 2 |
-3 |
0.59 |
|
Game 3 |
-7 |
0.68 |
|
Game 4 |
3 |
0.41 |
|
Game 5 |
-10 |
0.74 |
|
Game 6 |
-14 |
0.83 |
|
Game 7 |
7 |
0.32 |
|
Game 8 |
-17 |
0.9 |
|
Game 9 |
7 |
0.32 |
|
Game 10 |
-3 |
0.59 |
|
Game 11 |
10 |
0.26 |
|
Game 12 |
-10 |
0.74 |
|
Projected Win Total |
-- |
7.31 |
A 21-point favorite typically wins 93% of the time in college football, so instead of using a full-win, I use 0.93. However, 3-point underdogs only win about 41% of the time. Instead of giving that team a loss, I award them 0.41 of a win.
Someone using the simple “win, win, loss, etc.” method would likely come up with an 8-4 projected record (team wins all eight games they are favored in, loses all four games as an underdog). However, assigning a specific win percentage to each point spread and adding all 12 decimals up would equate to a win total of 7.31. Big difference.
I hope that helps, and by using that method, these are my three favorite win total bets for the upcoming season as of right now.
