A new betting market was created a couple of years ago when the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams and added an automatic bid for the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion.
I’m looking at the most likely winners of each Group of Six conference. The bigger the favorite in each conference, the better.
Join me as I use my power ratings to determine my favorite Group of 6 value bets and college football picks to reach the CFP.
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Boise State to make the playoffs |
+500 |
 New Mexico to make the playoffs |
+1600 |
 South Florida to make the playoffs |
+1300 |
 Liberty to make the playoffs |
+15000 |
Group of 6 Value Bets to Make the CFP
Boise State to make the playoffs (+500 at DraftKings)
The Boise State Broncos have the shortest odds to make the playoff out of all the Group of Six conference schools. It is deserved not only because of their past reputation as the top small-conference program in college football over the last two decades, but also because this year’s team returns plenty of experience.
Boise State returns 11 starters, including quarterback Maddux Madsen. Boise State ranks No. 45 in Bill Connelly's returning production, as the Broncos bring back 20 players who logged at least 200 snaps last year.
Even though Boise State will be a huge underdog at Oregon in Week 1, my power ratings project them to be favored in every other game by at least a field goal.
A 10-2 or 11-1 Boise State team that wins another conference championship is very likely to be heading to the playoffs.
New Mexico to make the playoffs (+1600 at DraftKings)
After averaging only three wins per season from 2017 to 2024, the New Mexico Lobos won nine games last year.
It was not a fluke, as head coach Jason Eck is a rising star in the coaching ranks. This year’s team could be even better, and the Lobos are currently the favorites in the Mountain West.
New Mexico welcomes back 13 starters, led by QB Jack Layne. The Lobos sit No. 21 in Bill Connelly’s returning production, the second-highest among all Group of Six conference teams.
With home games looming vs. North Dakota State and UNLV, New Mexico could be favored in as many as 11 games this year (with the exception of Oklahoma).
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South Florida to make the playoffs (+1300 at DraftKings)
Even with new head coach Brian Hartline, the South Florida Bulls could have the most upside of any Group of Six program.
Known as one of the best recruiters in college football (see the Ohio State wide receiver room), Hartline signed the top transfer portal class in the G6. The Bulls bring in 24 players who combined to play 3,306 snaps at the Power Four conference level last year (the equivalent of eight starters).
Considering they won't play a single power conference school this year, USF should be favored in at least nine games this fall. The American Conference is wide open this year, and it wouldn't shock me if the Bulls won it.
Liberty to make the playoffs (+15000 at DraftKings)
Although the Liberty Flames are coming off a disappointing 4-8 season, the Flames were better than their record indicated, as they were just 1-4 in one-possession games while sporting positive yards per play and yards per game margins.
This year, they are the CUSA favorite thanks to the return of six starters on offense, led by QB Ethan Vasko. Liberty will be an underdog in its first game at James Madison, but the Flames could be favored in their next 11 contests.
