A quick peek behind the content curtain:
In order to keep some fresh college football content on the site despite the NFL’s obvious dominance on Sundays, yours truly puts together a simple national championship odds update in Sunday’s earliest hours.
In a similar effort, Covers publishes a few “early lean” articles on Monday and Tuesday before giving enough time to dive as deeply as wanted into the week’s slate.
Those are, on the surface, completely separate tasks, but the last few weeks of national championship odds updates have needed to recognize that Oregon plays Penn State this weekend while Ohio State has a nominally easier schedule for another month before its own trip to Happy Valley.
The earliest Oregon vs. Penn State predictions acknowledged that, as a means of praise for the Ducks and the Nittany Lions, arguably the two best teams in the country, despite the Buckeyes leading the way in FanDuel’s title odds at +600.
But what if that entire conversation shifts this weekend, not because of the top-five matchup at Penn State but because of Ohio State’s struggles in the Pacific Northwest?
And what if the biggest statement of the weekend comes in the Southeast?
Those thoughts lead the way in these college football predictions, coming off a 3-2 week for +1.29 units, bringing the season totals to 10-15 and -5.17 units.
College football predictions Week 5
Washington +8.5 (-110)
Alabama moneyline (+135)
Jadarian Price anytime TD (-140)
Western Kentucky -4.5 (-110)
Kansas -4.5 (-110)
Washington +8.5
Betting on the moneyline at +260 at DraftKings is just a touch more bold than comfort allows, but expect Washington to give Ohio State a hard time.
The biggest perk here is the anticipation of a backdoor cover from the Huskies, because this entire thought is based on their offense against a possibly overrated Buckeyes’ defense.
What do we really know about Ohio State’s defense? The whole world watched it hold Texas to just seven points in the season opener.
And since then, the Buckeyes have given up nine total points to Ohio and FCS-level Grambling. Congratulations, Matt Patricia, you first showed the world Arch Manning’s flaws and then beat up on the helpless.
But Arch Manning’s flaws have made it clear that they were not a product of Ohio State. They were simply an inevitability for the Longhorns’ inexperienced passer.
Now the Buckeyes need to stop one of the best offenses in the country, one that has scored at least 38 in all three of its games this season, including 59 at Washington State last weekend. Scoff at that as you wish, but these accomplishments are every bit as impressive as anything Patricia’s defense has done, if not more so.
The Huskies have produced quality drives on 84.2% of their possessions this season, the best rate in the country. Cling to anything close to that, and a cover should be rather trusted in Seattle.
And clinging to something close to that should be trusted, given Washington’s passing game, ranked No. 10 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, per cfb-graphs.com.
Maybe that passing offense does not yield a Washington win, as much as Penn State and Oregon hope it does. However, it should assure a productive garbage time, at the absolute worst.
Most likely, it exposes Patricia’s defense as flawed, and suddenly, Ohio State’s title odds take a step backward.
Alabama moneyline
Opponents do not like throwing against either of these defenses.
Alabama ranks No. 3 in rush rate over expected, while Georgia sits at No. 18. On the surface, those sound relatively comparable, but look at the actual rates.
Crimson Tide opponents run the ball 22.0% more often than would be expected from an average offense in a given game state, while the Bulldogs' opponents do so 8.9% more often. There is a noticeable difference in how the defenses force that issue.
The Tide offense might not throw as often on Saturday as it normally does, but the Bulldogs may have to abandon the air entirely, especially given that their quarterback remains Gunner Stockton. As soon as an underdog can force an opponent into a one-dimensional offense, there is value in the moneyline.
But then add in Alabama’s ruthlessly efficient offense as it converts quality drives into points at the fifth-best rate in the country. The Tide turn 60% of their possessions into scoring opportunities, averaging 4.5 points per trip.
Compare that to the Bulldogs’ 50% and 4.19 points per opportunity.
🔸No one wants to throw on Alabama's defense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 24, 2025
🔸Georgia's quarterback is Gunner Stockton.
🔸Meanwhile, Bama is ruthless in converting quality drives, better than Georgia even if Georgia is good in that regard.
Alabama moneyline: https://t.co/xM1rWaWmh4 pic.twitter.com/WRv02PUmmo
Those may seem small margins, but small margins where it matters most should be weighted heavily.
Two strong indicators like that are enough to encourage this moneyline bet despite the looming environment of Sanford Stadium.
Jadarian Price anytime touchdown
There is some want to simply take the Over 64.5 (-108 at DraftKings) in Notre Dame vs. Arkansas. Both these defenses have been reprehensible.
However, the smartest choice is to bet on the best unit in this game against the worst unit, and the juice on a Jeremiyah Love touchdown (-390 at DraftKings) is too hefty to encourage as a best bet.
That leads me to Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price, with six total touchdowns this season, all in the last two weeks.
The Irish know they are strongest running the ball, and now they go against a defense that ranks No. 113 in the country in rushing success rate against and No. 65 in rushing EPA against.
Arkansas has allowed 24 rushes of 10+ yards, per Jamie Uyeyama, the 14th-highest mark in the country.
It is not a matter of if Price sees green grass between him and the goal line. It is a matter of when.
Western Kentucky -4.5
Western Kentucky should be bet nearly anytime it's listed as a one-score favorite. The Hilltoppers throw the ball too often for the numbers not to eventually break their way in those moments, especially when facing a Missouri State defense that ranks No. 127 in EPA per dropback against.
That really might be this entire handicap. Opponents already throw the ball often against the Bears, 37th-most in the country. Western Kentucky will be glad to oblige that, its offense ranking No. 29 in that regard.
And giving Maverick McIvor that many chances through the air eventually yields points. Only Toledo has managed to slow Western Kentucky.
Missouri State is a far cry from Toledo.
Kansas -4.5
Kansas has blown out three of its four opponents and looked to be on its way to doing that to Missouri, as well, with a 21-6 first-quarter lead. Then a series of fluke plays created a tie game at halftime, and all the momentum in the world sat with the Tigers.
Beyond that quarter, though, the Jayhawks have been one of the most dominant teams in the country, if not the most dominant team in the country.
In this specific matchup, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels should find his success first through the air, the No. 1 EPA passing offense in the country facing a defense ranking No. 102 in that worry. There is a very good reason opponents throw the ball against Cincinnati 5.2% more often than should be expected.
To be blunt: That reason is because the Bearcats struggle to stop the pass.
If Kansas can avoid chaotic turnovers — always a hefty “if,” but not as big a one as that Missouri game made it seem, since the Jayhawks have only three turnovers on the season — then covering any spread within six should be expected.
A Jayhawks team total Over 30.5 was also pondered, but this comes with less juice (-110 vs. -118) and allows for a plodding 28 points to be enough.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 10-15 this season for -5.17 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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