Arizona vs Iowa State Prediction, Picks & Odds for September 27 — College Football Week 5

Two of the top Big 12 scoring defenses are featured on Saturday, and our expert college football predictions expect a low-scoring clash in Ames.

Eric Rosales - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Sep 26, 2025 • 13:15 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 24 hrs
ISU
46 %
ARIZ
54 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
u48.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Noah Fifita NCAAF Arizona Wildcats
Photo By - Imagn Images. Noah Fifita of the Arizona Wildcats.

It's a battle of unbeatens Saturday in the Big 12, as the 14th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones look for a 5-0 start when they host the 3-0 Arizona Wildcats.

Arizona kicks off its conference schedule as a 6.5-point road underdog in the college football odds and will face a legit home-field advantage at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa.

Below, we're running down our best Arizona vs. Iowa State predictions, along with other betting options to consider for your college football picks for Saturday, September 27.

Arizona vs Iowa State prediction

Arizona vs Iowa State best bet: Under 48.5 (-110)

The Arizona Wildcats currently stand in a second-place tie in scoring defense in the Big 12, allowing just 8.7 points per game, alongside UCF.

The Iowa State Cyclones are not far behind, ranking seventh and surrendering just 14.3 points per contest.

The Cyclones have shown an ability to grind teams to a halt. After surrendering 21 points in a Week 0 win over Kansas State in Dublin, ISU has been even more stingy stateside.

They've held South Dakota, Iowa, and Arkansas State to 16 points or less.

Arizona was gangbusters out of the gate, dropping back-to-back 40+ bombs over both Hawaii and Weber State.

When they leveled up against Kansas State (a nonconference game played by two Big 12 teams, but a matchup agreed to when Arizona was still in the Pac 12), they produced a season-low 23 points in the win.

The Wildcats have gone Under the total in back-to-back games, the same as the Cyclones, and this has the makings of an old-school slug fest.

Arizona vs Iowa State same-game parlay

It's been an up-and-down passing season for ISU junior QB Rocco Becht. He's coming off a win over Arkansas State, throwing for 265 yards with a TD and an interception.

He's alternated between 260+ and sub-185 yards in each of the four games this season, and Arizona has a defense that can keep that trend continuing.

In their toughest test of the year to date, Arizona held K-State's Avery Johnson to just 88 yards passing on 29 attempts. It's by far his lowest output of the year.

Ismail Mahdi broke out big time against Kansas State, carrying 22 times for 189 yards. The only thing missing was a trip to the endzone, a place Mahdi hasn't visited in two straight games.

He should get a chance in this one, as the Wildcats should want to establish the run game early and often against the Cyclones' defense.

Arizona vs Iowa State 3-leg SGP

  • Under 48.5
  • Rocco Becht Under 235.5 passing yards
  • Ismail Mahdi anytime touchdown

Our deep-ball SGP: Firing Fifita!

It's been an up-and-down passing season for Becht. He's coming off a win over Arkansas State, throwing for 265 yards with a TD and an interception. He's alternated between 260+ and sub-185 yards in each of the four games this season, and Arizona has a defense that can keep that trend continuing.

Mahdi broke out big time against Kansas State, carrying 22 times for 189 yards. The only thing missing was a trip to the endzone, a place Mahdi hasn't visited in two straight games.

Arizona vs Iowa State 5-leg SGP

  • Under 48.5
  • Rocco Becht Under 235.5 passing yards
  • Ismail Mahdi anytime touchdown
  • Noah Fifita Over 1.5 touchdown passes
  • Carson Hansen Under 67.5 rushing yards

Arizona vs Iowa State odds

  • Spread: Arizona +6.5 (-110) | Iowa State -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Arizona +200 | Iowa State -250
  • Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)

Arizona vs Iowa State trend to know

The Wildcats' last 10 September games have all gone Under the total. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Iowa State.

How to watch Arizona vs Iowa State

Location Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Date Saturday, September 27, 2025
Kickoff 7:00 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Arizona vs Iowa State latest injuries

Arizona vs Iowa State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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