The biggest story in college football has been the news on Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has entered a gambling addiction program.
Currently, I am expecting him NOT to play college football again, which is very unfortunate for him, as well as my Heisman best bet I gave out last month.
However, as I break down below, Texas Tech’s 2026 outlook still remains strong without their star pivot.
| Powers' Play |  |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech to win the Big 12 |
+110 |
Sorsby's Value
One of the questions I often get asked is, “How much is a player worth to a point spread?”
Obviously, the quarterback position is by far the most valuable position in football. Very few non-QBs can move a spread more than a point in college football.
Meanwhile, the average starting quarterback is worth 2.5 points to the spread in my ratings, and the range is typically anywhere from 0 points to sometimes more than a touchdown.
Remember, there are two parts to a point-spread value: One is the quality of your starter, and the other is the quality of your backup. You can be a Top 10 QB in college football, but be worth less than an average QB due to the capability of the backup.
There are plenty of basic stats I use to compile my quarterback point-spread values, including QBR, rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, etc. There are also non-quantifiable things like leadership, experience, and scheme (is it a QB-friendly system?).
Brendan Sorsby was coming off a solid season at Cincinnati, where he posted a 27-5 TD-INT ratio while also running for 580 yards and nine scores. He finished No. 10 in QBR.
Next Man Up
This year, Sorsby was ranked as the No. 2 overall transfer portal player according to 247 Sports.
Was Sorsby going to be worth seven points to Texas Tech? No, that’s where backup Will Hammond comes in.
Hammond has several starts in his career and had a better QBR than Texas Tech starter Behren Morton last year. I can make a case that Hammond is a Top 10 backup in all of CFB, and therefore Sorsby would only be a 2.5 to 3-point upgrade at most.
The problem is that Hammond missed the entire spring as he continues to recover from a torn ACL last October. Hammond has returned to throwing in the last few weeks, but the full timeline for a return remains unclear.
Because of this health uncertainty, I think Sorsby’s value is closer to 3.5 to 4 points. When you add that to the likelihood Texas Tech regresses this year due to sending a school-record nine players to the NFL Draft, I’ve downgraded Texas Tech seven points since the end of last season.
Don’t Count Out the Red Raiders
Even with the 7-point downgrade from last year’s team, my power ratings still project Texas Tech to be favored in every game this season by double digits.
The Red Raiders play Abilene Christian, Oregon State, and Sam Houston State in non-conference action. They avoid BYU and Utah (the next best teams in the Big 12) in conference play and get dark horse Big 12 contender Houston at home.
FanDuel has posted a line on the Houston game, and the Red Raiders are still favored by 12.5 points. That could be Texas Tech’s toughest game of the season.
With Sorsby likely missing the whole season, Texas Tech’s win total has gone from 11.5, with the Under juiced heavily to 10.5. This coincides with my power ratings, which currently project the Red Raiders to win 10.6 games.
Without Sorsby, I project Texas Tech to win 7.8 games in Big 12 play, with BYU being the next closest at 6.5. I think there’s at least a 65% chance Texas Tech makes the Big 12 Championship game, and right now I would have them favored by at least six points in that matchup.
Remember, the Red Raiders were 13-point favorites in last year’s Big 12 Championship game vs BYU and easily covered.
Texas Tech brings back 12 starters from last year (tied for the most in the Big 12) and welcomes 10 transfers who were full-time starters at the FBS level last year. Its 22 combined returning starters are tied for the most in college football.
This is still the most talented and most experienced team in the Big 12 by far.
