The College Football Playoff kicks off with an epic matchup of two SEC teams when the Oklahoma Sooners host the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first round on Friday, December 18.
The Sooners are hoping to replicate their recent 23-21 win over the Tide, and I’m betting there’s some value in the home underdogs, as Oklahoma and John Mateer highlight my SGP for this CFP showdown.
And for even more college football picks for this first round CFP matchup, check out my Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions.
Alabama vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
The Oklahoma Sooners enter this first-round matchup knowing they can win, having beaten the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa a little over a month ago.
Now, they’ll have the advantage of playing in front of the home crowd in Norman. That, combined with arguably the nation’s best defense, is why I like the Sooners to beat Alabama for the second time this season.
The Sooners are ranked second in defensive success rate, third in opponent EPA per play, and second in sack rate. And they gave Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide loads of problems, sacking him four times, forcing three fumbles, and one interception.
Now, Simpson and this passing attack are what got Bama here, but the one-dimensional nature of this offense has limited the Tide, particularly in a matchup against a good defense like the Sooners.
On top of that, Alabama just hasn’t looked like a good football team for a while.
The Tide got steamrolled by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, needed some fourth-quarter heroics to beat Auburn, and lost to this Oklahoma team at home two weeks before that.
Alabama is getting overrated because of its name. I think the wrong team is favored here and am taking Oklahoma to win outright on the moneyline.
While the defense is Oklahoma's engine, John Mateer is its heart. The dual-threat QB has battled his consistency throwing the football ever since having surgery on his throwing thumb earlier in the season. But when Mateer is on, the Sooners are hard to beat.
He’s the type of guy who will run through a brick wall for his team, and he knows Oklahoma is most dangerous when he can effectively run the football.
He scored two touchdowns in a big early-season meeting against Michigan and found the end zone in must-win games against Tennessee and Alabama. We are getting a great price for him to score here, so let's add it to the SGP.
And nothing goes with scoring touchdowns like Overs. Now, this is a matchup of two excellent defenses. But even so, this total of 40.5 is a touch too low. Alabama has played Over this number in seven of nine SEC games, while the handful of times Oklahoma faced off against good offensive teams (Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi), those games ended up going above this number as well.
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