The College Football Playoff kicks off tonight with the premier matchup of the opening round, as the Oklahoma Sooners face the Alabama Crimson Tide.
This showdown is a rematch of their November 15 meeting in Tuscaloosa, where Oklahoma stunned Alabama 23–21 as 6.5-point road underdogs.
Now the rematch moves to Norman, and although the Sooners are underdogs again, belief is strong that they can make another statement with a CFP quarterfinal berth on the line.
My Alabama vs. Oklahoma predictions bring you college football picks for this epic matchup on Friday, December 19.
Alabama vs Oklahoma predictions for the CFP First Round
Who will win Alabama vs Oklahoma?
I'm picking the Oklahoma Sooners. While John Mateer has had his ups and downs, he's still a baller. But most importantly, Oklahoma has arguably the best defense in the country, going against an Alabama Crimson Tide team that hasn't looked good since the calendar read October.
Alabama vs Oklahoma best bet: Oklahoma moneyline (-102)
The first round of the College Football Playoff kicks off with a marquee matchup in Norman, where the Oklahoma Sooners will play host to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Oklahoma earned the first-round home playoff game by going 10-2, which included a 23-21 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa back on November 15.
John Mateer powers this Sooners offense. The dual-threat QB threw for 2,578 yards with 12 touchdowns while adding another 416 yards and seven scores on the ground. Those numbers tell you he’s battled his consistency ever since having surgery on his throwing thumb earlier in the season. But when Mateer is on, the Sooners are hard to beat.
But what makes Oklahoma a real threat is a defense that is among the absolute best in the country.
The Sooners ranked second in defensive success rate, third in opponent EPA per play, and second in sack rate. And they gave Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide loads of problems, sacking him four times, forcing three fumbles, and one interception.
Now, Simpson and this passing attack got Bama here, but the one-dimensional nature of this offense has limited the Tide, particularly in a matchup against a good defense like the Sooners.
On top of that, Alabama just hasn’t looked like a good football team for a while now.
The Tide got steamrolled by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. They needed some fourth-quarter heroics to beat Auburn. And they lost to this Oklahoma team at home two weeks before. Even before that OU loss, the offense sputtered against LSU and needed another fourth-quarter comeback to beat South Carolina.
Alabama is getting overrated because of its name. I think the wrong team is favored and am taking Oklahoma to win outright on the moneyline.
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Alabama vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
It’s hard not to be a fan of Mateer. He’s the type of guy who will run through a brick wall for his team, and he knows Oklahoma is the most dangerous when he can effectively run the football.
He scored two touchdowns in a big early-season meeting against Michigan and found the end zone in must-win games against Tennessee and Alabama. We are getting a great price for him to score here, so let's add it to the SGP.
And nothing goes with scoring touchdowns like Overs. Now, this is a matchup of two excellent defenses, but this total of 40.5 is a touch too low.
Alabama has played Over this number in seven of nine SEC games, while the handful of times Oklahoma faced off against good offensive teams (Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi), those games ended up going above this number as well.
Alabama vs Oklahoma SGP
- Oklahoma moneyline
- John Mateer TD
- Over 40.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Dream BIG
You want a long shot? How about a four-leg anytime touchdown parlay in a game with a total of 40.5? We’re already on Mateer, but let’s add his most dynamic receiver in Isaiah Sategna. Meanwhile, I think Germie Bernard and Josh Cuevas will be Simpson’s most likely scoring targets.
Alabama vs Oklahoma SGP
- John Mateer anytime touchdown
- Isaiah Sategna anytime touchdown
- Germie Bernard anytime touchdown
- Josh Cuevas anytime touchdown
Alabama vs Oklahoma game predictions
Alabama vs Oklahoma spread prediction
Since I’m taking the Sooners to win outright as underdogs, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I’ll bet them to cover the spread as well. Alabama has struggled for longer than those in Tuscaloosa would like to admit, and its one-dimensional offense will bite the Tide in the butt against this elite Oklahoma defense.
Alabama vs Oklahoma Over/Under prediction
This is a matchup of two very strong defensive teams. And it took a defensive touchdown for this matchup to go over this number in the last meeting. That said, 40.5 is just too low, and it won’t take much to send this game Over.
Alabama vs Oklahoma odds
- Spread: Alabama -1.5 | Oklahoma +1.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -116 | Oklahoma -102
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 | Under 40.5
Alabama vs Oklahoma trend to know
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games for +5.20 Units and a 8% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Oklahoma.
How to watch Alabama vs Oklahoma
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date | Friday, December 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC & ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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