Sunday pits the No. 9-seeded Utah State Aggies against the No. 1 Arizona Wildcats in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats are 12-point favorites, and my Utah State vs. Arizona predictions aren't shying away from laying the points.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region clash on March 22.
Utah State vs Arizona prediction
Who will win Utah State vs Arizona?
Arizona: The Utah State Aggies edged Villanova in the first round by outrebounding them 37-27 and scoring 42 points in the paint. They won't have nearly the same success against the Arizona Wildcats, who are bigger and dominate inside.
The Wildcats are the highest-rated team in the country on KenPom and have racked up an NCAA-record 12 wins against ranked opponents. Arizona's size, athleticism, and depth will be too much for the Mountain West champs.
Utah State vs Arizona best bet: Arizona -12 (-110)
This is a bad matchup for Utah State, and Arizona has been blowing teams out all year.
The Aggies' biggest strengths are their interior scoring and ability to force turnovers. However, the Wildcats rank second in the country in opponent 2PT% (43.5%), and their ball-handlers have shown the poise to break elite press defenses like Houston and Iowa State.
Utah State also sits outside the top 250 in opponent free-throw rate and defensive rebounding rate. That feeds into what Arizona does best, get to the line (19th in FT rate) and control the glass (sixth in rebound rate).
COVERS INTEL: The Wildcats have been winning with margin all season, beating 12 high-major opponents by 13+ points and dusting Aggies rival San Diego State by 23.
Utah State vs Arizona same-game parlay
The Wildcats don't take many threes and need to utilize more outside shooting to crack Utah State's zone defense. That means getting the ball to Brayden Burries, who is averaging 17.8 ppg while shooting 42% from deep over the last 18 games.
Utah State's bigs aren't athletic or physical enough to keep Tobe Awaka off the glass. The senior forward leads the nation in both offensive rebounding rate and total rebounding rate.
Utah State vs Arizona SGP
- Arizona -12
- Brayden Burries Over 17.5 points
- Tobe Awaka Over 8.5 rebounds
Our Big Dance SGP: Backcourt Duel
Utah State's offense is heavily reliant on guards MJ Collins and Mason Falslev. Collins has dropped at least 20 points in four of his last five games, while Falslev has scored 16+ in four of his previous six contests.
It will be a fun showdown between those two and Arizona's backcourt of Burries and Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley. Let's back them all to clear their points totals in what should be a fast-paced matchup.
Utah State vs Arizona SGP
- MJ Collins Over 16.5 points
- Mason Falslev Over 15.5 points
- Brayden Burries Over 17.5 points
- Jaden Bradley Over 13.5 points
Utah State vs Arizona odds
- Spread: Utah State +12 (-110) | Arizona -12 (-110)
- Moneyline: Utah State +550 | Arizona -800
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Utah State vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Wildcats have gone Over their team total in seven of their last nine games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah State vs. Arizona.
How to watch Utah State vs Arizona
| Location | Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, March 22, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Utah State vs Arizona key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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