Miami (OH) earned respect and took care of business vs. SMU, setting up a stern test with a very different team in Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament.
In some ways, this Vols team is the antithesis of the SMU team that the Redhawks beat up on with their physical play, thanks in part to Jaylen Carey.
My Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee predictions and March Madness picks break down why the Vols big man will exceed his point total on Friday, March 20.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee prediction
Who will win Miami (OH) vs Tennessee?
Tennessee: Tennessee wins because the most likely thing to occur in this matchup is instant negative shooting regression for Miami (OH) after a red-hot night in the First Four. The path for Miami (OH) is to once again bomb threes and hope to get a foul-prone Vols team in trouble.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee best bet: Jaylen Carey Over 6.5 points (-110)
The Tennessee Volunteers will attempt to pound the bank against a weak Miami (OH) RedHawks interior defense, and Jaylen Carey should profit from that.
Tennessee can do a masterful job of imposing its style on the opposition. If it does it here, it’ll mean plenty of half-court possessions.
We should see plenty of cuts to the rim from pick-and-rolls for Tennessee. Carey is an imposing body who can make his presence felt against a smaller team, and he’s the primary feature of these actions.
The Redhawks rank in the Bottom 20% of college basketball in defending this action.
COVERS INTEL: Miami (OH) turns it over on just 14.2% of possessions (27th nationally). Tennessee turns it over 17.1% of the time (207th).
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee finished the season with the second-highest foul rate in the SEC against Top 100 opponents. Brant Beyers finished the season with an astronomical 57% free throw rate, so this is a natural fit.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee SGP
- Jaylen Carey Over 6.5 points
- Brant Byers Over 11.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Gillespie gets involved
Ja’Kobi Gillespie should be able to have a big game as a facilitator against a soft interior defense. Likely lotto pick Nate Ament stands to profit at the rim just like Carey, and Gillespie is the player dishing out those dimes.
I'm also adding Miami to grab the cover, and this simply comes down to the Rick Barnes factor. The Tennessee head coach enters this game 3-7 ATS as a double-digit tournament favorite since 2020.
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee SGP
- Jaylen Carey Over 6.5 points
- Brant Byers Over 11.5 points
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 5.5 assists
- Miami (OH) +11
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Miami (OH) +11.5 | Tennessee -11.5
- Moneyline: Miami (OH) +470 | Tennessee -670
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the 1H Under in 19 of its last 25 games (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami (OH) vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Miami (OH) vs Tennessee
| Location | Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Friday, March 20, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Miami (OH) vs Tennessee key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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