It's a neutral-site game for two well-known college basketball programs, and my Memphis vs. Iowa State prediction hinges on whether Penny Hardaway’s rebuilt lineup can handle Iowa State’s ball pressure.
My top pick lays the points with Iowa State behind a solid performance from Tamin Lipsey.
Find more opening-week plays in our college basketball picks for Monday, Nov. 2.
TOP PICK
Who will win Memphis vs Iowa State: Iowa State -15.5
I’d lay the Iowa State Cyclones to -15.5 at 51% or less, with Nemanja Popović remaining out.
My model makes them exactly 14.7-point favorites, but I’m willing to pay a little more with returning point guard Tamin Lipsey available. He missed the Creighton exhibition game amid uncertainty over his fifth-year eligibility, then played 30 minutes with seven assists against Northwestern.
Iowa State forced turnovers on 22.8% of defensive possessions last season. Lipsey and Jaquan Johnson can make the Memphis Tigers start possessions further from the basket, leaving less time for Jayden Reid and Tylik Weeks to create.
If Popović remains withheld pending appeal, as expected, Memphis also loses the passing big who could catch between defenders and break that pressure.
The Tigers have enough guard talent for competitive stretches, but Iowa State’s defensive pressure and frontcourt depth should build the margin.
COVERS INTEL: Memphis allowed opponents to rebound 35.0% of their misses last season, while Iowa State recovered 34.8% of its own. That gives the Cyclones a route to extra possessions even if their retooled perimeter offense starts slowly.
Memphis vs Iowa State Over/Under pick: Over 155.5
I’d play Over 155.5 at 53% or less.
My model projects 73 possessions and 155 points, and I see room above that total with Lipsey directing Iowa State’s offense.
The paint matchup works for both teams: Memphis allowed 58.9% shooting at the rim last season, while Iowa State allowed 64.9%. Blake Buchanan can finish inside for the Cyclones, and Reid and Weeks have reason to attack downhill for Memphis rather than trade contested jumpers with Iowa State.
Iowa State has paths to the upper 80s through paint touches and transition chances, which leaves the Tigers a manageable share of the total.
Memphis vs Iowa State combo
This is relatively correlated.
The story of this game will be Iowa State exposing the erratic play of the Memphis guards with live-ball turnovers that lead to easy run-out scores. That should set a good tempo to get this in the mid-150s.
Meanwhile, when Memphis can actually maintain possession, the Tigers do have some areas that can exploit, particularly around the rim. I expect a reasonably paced game where the more talented team looks just like that.
Memphis vs Iowa State combo
- Iowa State -14.5
- Over 155.5
Memphis vs Iowa State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Memphis +14.5 | Iowa State -14.5
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 | Under 155.5
- Moneyline: Memphis 8% | Iowa State 92%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
Memphis vs Iowa State trend
Memphis has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of its last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 44% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Memphis vs Iowa State
| Location | Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, South Dakota |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Memphis vs Iowa State latest injuries
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