The Creighton Bluejays took the worst beating of their season last time out. They’re hoping to bounce back as they visit Stillwater for a date with the Oklahoma State Cowboys, pegged as eight-point favorites in the college basketball odds.
Oklahoma State has been treading water at 3-3, but they’ve dropped 90+ points in back-to-back wins.
Can they keep up that offensive prowess against the 15th-ranked team in the nation? Read on for my free college basketball picks for Creighton vs. Oklahoma State on Thursday, November 30.
Creighton vs Oklahoma State best odds
Creighton vs Oklahoma State picks and predictions
The Creighton Bluejays would very much like to chalk up that 69-48 drubbing at the hands of the Colorado State Rams in the title game of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City as the outlier. Other than that, it's been a solid start to the campaign for the 5-1 Bluejays.
Everything was awful for the Bluejays against Colorado State. They shot a brutal 17-for-61 from the field, a lowly 27.9% clip, and were even worse from beyond the arc, going 6-for-29 (20.7%).
It was the first game they've been held under 80 points in a game all season. Even after the loss, the Bluejays rank 40th in the nation in scoring at 84 points per game and 20th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
It was a game to forget for junior guard Trey Alexander, who labored through the loss with a season-worst 1-for-16 shooting performance, finishing with three points, four rebounds, and two blocks. Alexander missed all five 3-point attempts, and it’s the second straight game he’s finished in single-digit points after tallying just eight on 3-for-10 shooting in an 88-65 win over the Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
And yet, he’s my target for our best bet Thursday night — and it’s not money on him to stay struggling.
Alexander started the year going for 20+ points in four straight games, where he shot 31-for-55, a sturdy 56.3% mark from the field and 38% from three. The sudden lack of production is alarming, as he’s combined for 11 points on 4-for-26 shooting across two games, a dismal 15.4% clip.
But here’s the good news: Before this cold stretch, Alexander averaged 18.4 points per game and is now down to 15.8. His total at DraftKings is set at 13.5. That seems mighty low for a guy who has gone sub-10 scoring in three straight just once over the past 39 games, spanning back to last season.
I think pride plays a factor for a guy who just endured the second-worst shooting performance in his Creighton career. Alexander’s four scoreless performances across two-and-a-bit seasons are the only ones that could be considered worse. The prop total is an overcorrection as the larger sample size tells us he's a better bet to go Over.
My best bet: Trey Alexander Over 13.5 points (-135 at DraftKings)
Creighton vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay
Defense has been a calling card for both teams this season, which is a big reason I’m taking the Under 142. The Cowboys are allowing 66.5 points per game, good for 100th in the nation while sitting inside the Top 75 in defensive efficiency, a 72nd-place rank at KenPom.
The Bluejays post an even stronger defense, ranking 44th in the NCAA, and a sturdy 24th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. Creighton has gone Under the number in two of its last three matchups. This is the lowest line it has faced this season, with a total of 146.5 the previous floor.
Oklahoma State has shown it can score the ball, with a 92-65 win over Houston Christian last time out. Previously, it hung a 96-68 win over the New Orleans Privateers.
No disrespect to either of those schools, but Creighton represents a competition level-up — Oklahoma State's first ranked opponent of the season, and easily the best team the Cowboys will have faced.
Just once has an opponent cracked the 70-point plateau against the Bluejays — when they beat Iowa 92-84 — and Oklahoma State will feel the vise grip tonight.
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Creighton vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis
Wednesday afternoon featured this spread as low as Creighton -6, but it’s been moving North ever since. At FanDuel, you can find Creighton as an 8.5-point favorite, though there is variety inside those two figures, with most books settling in at Creighton -7.5 to -8.
The Bluejays are a solid 4-2-0 against the spread this year, while the Cowboys have struggled at 2-4-0 ATS.
As for the total, this line briefly lived below 140 points, checking in at 139.5. While it hasn’t been dramatic, the line has moved and topped out at 142 points.
Creighton vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
Creighton has won each of its last 15 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Oklahoma State.
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Creighton vs Oklahoma State game info
|Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, OK
|Thursday, November 30, 2023
|9:00 p.m. ET
Creighton vs Oklahoma State key injuries
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