We're heading to San Antonio, and not to visit the Alamo, as my Baylor vs. Texas prediction has the Bears keeping this one close against their in-state rivals in a Lone Star State showdown at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas enters as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 159.5. Let's dive into my college basketball picks for Sunday, Nov. 15.
TOP PICK
Who will win Baylor vs Texas: Baylor +4.5
There is a lot more to like about this Baylor Bears team than the Texas Longhorns at this point in the season. For starters, the Bears have at least been challenged by a team outside the 300s, facing No. 187 Yale, while Texas has played the fourth-easiest schedule in the country thus far.
Secondly, there is easily far more chemistry on this Bears roster. The Mingo brothers have been battling together their entire lives, and both are leading the team in scoring. Baylor also returned Isaac Williams IV, who ranks fourth in scoring, leads the team in assists per game, and is shooting 82.4% from the charity stripe.
Both rosters are peppered with freshmen, but Texas has six on its roster and returns only one key player from a year ago, who happens to be the entire team at the moment.
The 7-foot center Matas Vokietaitis is leading the Longhorns in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage. If the Bears can get to the big fella, they should be able to keep this one close, if not come out on top.
Playable down to +3.5.
COVERS INTEL: Through three games, Baylor ranks third nationally in turnover percentage defense. Meanwhile, Texas has yet to face a team ranked in the Top 120 in turnover percentage. Chicago State is currently the closest, sitting at No. 125, per Bart Torvik.
Baylor vs Texas Over/Under pick: Over 159.5
With Texas playing some of the country's worst teams to open the season, the over is certainly in my ear. All of their current statistics are heavily inflated by the competition they've faced. However, we know Baylor is going to try to make this a track meet, as the Bears rank 97th in pace.
Baylor is going to run downhill as fast as it can, currently ranking No. 1 in the country in close two-point percentage. If the Bears are forcing turnovers and getting after the offensive boards, the points should pile up.
Plus, if Baylor is struggling to defend Vokietaitis, he's going to feast down low and likely draw some fouls along the way.
Baylor vs Texas combo
If Baylor can exploit an unprepared Texas team while maintaining its early momentum after taking down Yale earlier this week, the Bears should be able to keep this one close. Plus, if this turns into a track meet, points shouldn't be hard to come by. That's why I'm pairing Baylor +4.5 with the Over 159.5 for a 3.26 payout.
Baylor vs Texas combo
- Over 159.5
- Baylor +4.5
- Top picks: 27-21, +5.87 units
Baylor vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Baylor +4.5 | Texas -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
- Moneyline: Baylor 35% | Texas 66%
Check the latest college basketball odds for more on today's Baylor vs. Texas matchup.
Baylor vs Texas trend
The Over is 5-1 in Baylor's last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Baylor vs Texas
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026 |
| Tip off | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Baylor vs Texas latest injuries
Check out our college basketball injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
