The shorthanded Golden State Warriors travel to Paycom Center to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday.
Oklahoma City’s elite defensive unit will stifle the Dubs, and my Warriors vs. Thunder predictions expect Chet Holmgren to lead the charge as the home team earns a comfortable win.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this primetime Western Conference showdown on Saturday, March 7.
Warriors vs Thunder prediction
Warriors vs Thunder best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + rebounds (-112)
Chet Holmgren has been on a tear, and with Isaiah Hartenstein sidelined, I expect him to continue his strong play against a depleted Warriors frontcourt at home.
Holmgren has averaged 27.9 points + rebounds in 24 games without Hartenstein, hitting the Over on this line 13 times.
Over his last six games, Holmgren has averaged 16.3 points and 12.2 rebounds, averaging 16 points and 18 boards in his last two home games. He’s reached the Over in four of his last five home games and delivered 28+ points + rebounds in all three matchups with the Golden State Warriors.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Warriors vs Thunder same-game parlay
The Oklahoma City Thunder are just 15-16 ATS at home, but Golden State are 13-17 ATS on the road. Golden State is missing a number of key players, while Oklahoma City still has the reigning MVP and a deep cast of talented defenders.
The Warriors have scored 103 points or fewer in 15 games this season, and five of those have come across their last 12 games. Oklahoma City held Golden State to under 103 points in two of three head-to-head matchups this season, and the NBA's top defensive rating should be able to do it again at home.
Warriors vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + rebounds
- Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5
- Golden State Warriors Under 103.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Wallace keeps Thunder roaring
Cason Wallace is averaging 2.3 steals + blocks this season, including 2.6 at home. Across his last six at home, Wallace has averaged 3.4 steals + blocks and hit the Over on this line five times.
Warriors vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + rebounds
- Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5
- Golden State Warriors Under 103.5 points
- Cason Wallace Over 2.5 steals + blocks
Warriors vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Golden State +14.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -14.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State +550 | Oklahoma City -800
- Over/Under: Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.60 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.
How to watch Warriors vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Saturday, March 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Warriors vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
