Both the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets have their sights set on the Los Angeles Lakers’ Western Conference crown this season, but they may have to go through one another at some point.
We get a preview of what that may look like when they meet up in Denver with NBA odds having the Nuggets lay seven points at home as Dame Lillard will once again be without his running mate CJ McCollum. But is that NBA betting spread enough to put faith in Portland?
Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets on Tuesday, February 23, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Trail Blazers: CJ McCollum SG (Out), Harry Giles III PF (Out), Zach Collins PF (Out), Jusuf Nurkic C (Out).
Nuggets: Gary Harris SG (Out), PJ Dozier SG (Out), JaMychal Green PF (Out), Paul Millsap PF (Out), Greg Whittington SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the Trail Blazers and Nuggets. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAfter opening as 7.5-point favorites Monday afternoon and inching up to -8 Monday evening, the Nuggets dropped to -6 this morning and stuck there all day at PointsBet USA. "Sixty-four percent of tickets and 74 percent of bets on the Blazers," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said of point-spread action as of 8:30 p.m. ET. The total opened at 231, spent some time this morning at 230.5, then made a couple of trips to 232, where the number sits tonight. "Seventy-four percent of bets and 71 percent of handle on the Over," Yearout said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Blazers have dropped two games in a row, after a six-game winning streak, which includes getting thumped 132-100 by the Suns in Phoenix the last time out. But the Nuggets are also struggling, having dropped three of their last four and they are 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games.
The reason for the Blazers’ mini-skid is that they’ve gone cold from 3-point range, shooting just 27 percent from deep over the last two games. But the thing about Dame Lillard and the Blazers is that it doesn’t matter how cold they are—they’ll keep shooting.
And Portland will get the opportunity to get back on track against a Nuggets’ defense that ranks 19th in defensive rating over the last 10 games and is 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage for the season. It also doesn’t help that the Nuggets will be missing their best perimeter defender in Gary Harris Jr.
While the Blazers are also bottom of the barrel when it comes to defense (more on that in a bit), their shooting ability should allow them to at least keep up with the slumping Nuggets in this one. Take the points.
PREDICTION: Blazers +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While the Nuggets are struggling, they should find some room to work against a Blazers defense that is nothing to write home about. The Blazers are second to last in the NBA in defensive rating and rank 26th in opponent effective field goal percentage. That means they’ll have their hands full with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, who despite their skid, still have the Nugs ranking ninth in offensive rating over the past 10 games.
So with the fact that both offenses should be able to find their grooves in this one, with a reasonable (in a 2021 NBA) total of 232, it’s hard to back the Under in this one.
PREDICTION: Over 232 (-110)
Player prop pick
It’s funny to write a Nuggets betting preview and not write much about Jokic. So, let’s remedy that.
The Joker has scored a combined 31 points in his last two games, but he could be in for a big game in this matchup. The Blazers just have no one to match up against Jokic: He will eat Enes Kanter for breakfast and there is little big man depth behind him on the Portland bench.
Jokic is averaging 26.6 points per game this season and that number is up to 28.7 over the last 12 games. We are getting a reasonable number here, so bet the Joker to go Over his point total in this one.
PREDICTION: Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-110)
Trail Blazers vs Nuggets betting card
- Blazers +7 (-110)
- Over 232 (-110)
- Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points (-110)
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