NBA championship odds are taking shape as the regular season gets underway, and the market is heavily favoring the Western Conference to produce this season's champion.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the way on Polymarket with a 24% chance of winning it all, but the San Antonio Spurs are right on their heels at 23%.
In the East, the Philadelphia 76ers sit at 11%, while the defending champion New York Knicks follow at 9%.
With the NBA regular season underway, let's take a look at the latest NBA odds.
🏆 Latest 2027 NBA Championship odds
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma City Thunder |
24% |
 San Antonio Spurs |
23% |
 Philadelphia 76ers |
11% |
 New York Knicks |
9% |
 Minnesota Timberwolves |
8% |
 Miami Heat |
6% |
 Boston Celtics |
5% |
 Denver Nuggets |
4% |
 Toronto Raptors |
4% |
 Detroit Pistons |
3% |
Odds updated as of 10-19. Odds from Polymarket. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on the NBA at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $25 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any event contracts!
*Eligible locations only
2026-27 NBA Championship odds favorites
Oklahoma City Thunder (24%)
The Thunder may have been eliminated in the Western Conference Finals last season, but their pursuit of an NBA championship is far from over.
Jalen Williams battled injuries throughout last season and never looked fully healthy. It's hard to win a championship when your second-best player isn't at full strength.
While Oklahoma City lost some depth to salary-cap constraints, including Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, and Aaron Wiggins, the team restocked its roster through the draft with Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz, both of whom look ready to contribute right away.
At 24%, the Thunder are the rightful favorites in this market.
San Antonio Spurs (23%)
It really feels like the NBA Finals race comes down to the Thunder, the Spurs, and everyone else. The market reflects that, with Oklahoma City and San Antonio accounting for 47% of the combined probability.
The Spurs return their starting lineup and added veteran depth in Tobias Harris this offseason. With a deep roster and another year of experience under their belts, San Antonio should once again be a force in the Western Conference.
Philadelphia 76ers (11%)
The 76ers made the splashiest move of the offseason by acquiring Jaylen Brown in exchange for Paul George, which paved the way for LeBron James to sign in Philadelphia as a free agent.
One through five, this might be the most talented roster in the NBA. The biggest challenge will be overcoming the early lineup friction, establishing roles, and finding chemistry as the team comes together.
NBA Championship prediction
Boston Celtics to win (5%)
I'm here to tell you that Paul George was no throw-in in the Jaylen Brown trade. The Celtics' front office undoubtedly targeted him because his player archetype fits perfectly with how they want to play. Why else would Boston send Brown to a rival rather than trade him to a team in the Western Conference?
The Celtics can shoot, switch defensively on the perimeter, and protect the rim while controlling the boards with Neemias Queta and Mitchell Robinson splitting minutes at center.
At 5%, the Celtics are absolutely worth a trade on Polymarket to win the NBA Finals.
Pick made on 10-19.
There's not been much change since the LeBron James signing brought the Sixers' title odds to a robust 10%. The Spurs and Thunder have remained neck and neck, with their championship outlooks barely budging since Aug. 1.
NBA Championship trends
- Since the Warriors' 2018 repeat, the NBA has seen eight different champions in eight years. This is the longest such streak since the late 1970s.
- 23 of the last 26 champions ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating during the regular season.
- 24 of the last 26 champions were Top 5 in either Offensive or Defensive efficiency.
- Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-U.S. superstar or a team built on international depth.
🏀 Recent NBA Finals winners
Here's a look at the last 10 NBA championship winners, courtesy of SportsOddsHistory:
| Year | Team | Opening Odds |
| 2026 | New York Knicks |
12.5% |
| 2025 |  Oklahoma City Thunder |
9.5% |
| 2024 |  Boston Celtics |
15.4% |
| 2023 |  Denver Nuggets |
6.7% |
| 2022 |  Golden State Warriors |
7.7% |
| 2021 |  Milwaukee Bucks |
16.7% |
| 2020 |  Los Angeles Lakers |
5.3% |
| 2019 |  Toronto Raptors |
1.5% |
| 2018 | Golden State Warriors |
62.7% |
| 2017 | Golden State Warriors |
31.7% |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NBA Championship Odds FAQs
The San Antonio Spurs are favored to win the 2027 NBA Finals.
The New York Knicks won the 2026 NBA title, defeating the Spurs 4-1 in the NBA Finals.
