2025 NBA MVP Odds: Jokic Opens as Early Favorite

Player	Team	Position
Nikola Jokic	Denver Nuggets	C	+350	+350	+350
Luka Doncic	Dallas Mavericks	PG	+370	+390	+375
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	PG	+600	+550	+550
Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	C	+600	+600	+600
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	PF	+650	+550	+600
Anthony Edwards	Minnesota Timberwolves	SG	+1,200	+1,500	+1,200
Jayson Tatum	Boston Celtics	SF	+1,800	+2,200	+1,800
Jalen Brunson	New York Knicks	PG	+1,800	+2,000	+2,000
Victor Wembanyama	San Antonio Spurs	C	+2,800	+2,800	+2,200
Ja Morant	Memphis Grizzlies	PG	+3,000	+2,200	+3,300

Odds as of 7-11-24.

2024 NBA MVP favorites

Nikola Jokic (+350)

I mean, what more is there to say about Nikola Jokic at this point?

The man is an elite offense unto himself. He'll score about as efficiently as anyone in NBA history, and do so entirely within the flow of an attack he also coordinates, with passing few have ever had the vision for.

An underrated defender (yes, there's something to be said for an elite rebounder with sublime positioning and hands, pick-and-roll shortcomings be damned), Jokic is likely to keep the Nuggets buzzing within contention, regardless of any injuries or roster churn.

While the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope further stretches a roster that may have already lacked for Bruce Brown last season, we can expect a supremely-efficient triple-double average from Jokic, and 50+ wins for Denver, which is a pretty iron-clad argument for MVP contention, at the very least. 

Luka Doncic (+370 to +390)

Luka Doncic dragged the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals on one leg a couple of months ago, and now armed with the confidence of a deep playoff run, and even more support arriving in the offseason, 2025 may finally be the year for him to snag that elusive MVP.

A three-time preseason MVP odds favorite, Doncic has seen Dallas' overall body of work betray his individual brilliance, finishing well short of the Top-3 seed that's unofficially but pretty consistently required to make a winning MVP case.

With the Mavs proving themselves legit title threats after last season's trade deadline, there's no reason, barring injury, why new arrivals Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall can't propel the Mavs to an elite regular-season run, and give Luka's MVP chase some undeniable cred.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550 to +600)

As the Clippers bid adieu to Paul George this summer, one couldn't help but remark how well things are going for the Oklahoma City Thunder, on the other side of that 2019 PG trade.

Not only did the Thunder pocket a zillion draft picks in the deal, but a young Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting last season, and could very well win the damn thing in 2025. Meanwhile, OKC as a team is looking to make a deep playoff run after precociously notching the West's No. 1 seed last season.

SGA is a beast on both sides of the ball; equally impossible to stay in front of, or avoid. One of the NBA's best pure scorers, he operates more efficiently than just about any lead ballhandler in the league — all the more impressive given the unconventional nature of his game. 

OKC has upside to spare, and might just make the kind of mini-leap that puts it in a class by itself in the West, which will shine the MVP spotlight on Gilgeous-Alexander even brighter. 

How to read NBA MVP odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. Nikola Jokic had all but locked up the award by the end of the 2024 season, so his odds were listed with a minus (-) sign ahead of the number. 

• Nikola Jokic -1,000

The (-) meant that Jokic was an odds-on favorite, and a bettor needed to wager $1,000 to win $100. Other contenders in the MVP race had plus (+) odds to win.

• Luka Doncic +650

Here, a bettor stood to profit $650 for a $100 wager on Doncic if he had won the award. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

NBA MVP betting trends

Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:

• Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 13th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
  
  
• The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only five MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
  
  
• The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only four MVPs have been younger than 23 years old.
  
  
• Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won the last four MVPs.

NBA MVP voting criteria

The NBA's Most Valuable Player award is voted on by a panel of 100 media members, comprised of both national and local analysts.

Only regular-season games are taken into account (ballots are due shortly after the schedule concludes), and the league has intentionally not included specific criteria to guide voters, leading to a more open interpretation of "value", and the type of debate that now dominates media cycles and podcasts every March-April.

Despite the absence of a rubric, voters have generally trended towards awarding an MVP who leads a dominant team campaign (the "best player on the best team" is a popular contender argument).

Statistics are also a crucial factor to consider. However, with the rise of analytic models, traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists have begun to carry less raw weight, despite still being part of the equation. Advanced stats like win shares, plus-minus, and VORP (value over replacement player) are leaned upon heavily in most discussions.

A player who has MVP moments throughout the season will resonate with voters too: monster stat lines in big games, outperforming rivals in head-to-head matchups, clutch performances — anything to add extra appeal to their MVP case.

In today's age of load management, how much an MVP plays is of increasing importance. The league's newly-imposed 65-game minimum for award contenders will help curb the debate here, but a player who suits up every night is inherently more valuable.

And, while it's unfortunate to admit, voter fatigue absolutely governs this process when a player wins several awards and the media perform mental gymnastics to vote for another player, whether out of boredom or contrarianism. It happened to Michael Jordan. It happened to LeBron James. It possibly just happened to Nikola Jokic. It will happen again. 

Past NBA MVP awards by position

Centers owned the NBA MVP award in the early days of the Association, winning the trophy in 21 of the first 25 years it was presented.

NBA MVP history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and the position they played.

Season	Player	Position	Team
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	Center	Denver Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	Center	Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	Center	Denver Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	Center	Denver Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Power forward	Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Power forward	Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	Shooting guard	Houston Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	Point guard	Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	Point guard	Golden State Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	Point guard	Golden State Warriors
2013-14	Kevin Durant	Small forward	Oklahoma City Thunder
2012-13	LeBron James	Small forward	Miami Heat
2011-12	LeBron James	Small forward	Miami Heat
2010-11	Derrick Rose	Point guard	Chicago Bulls
2009-10	LeBron James	Small forward	Cleveland Cavaliers
2008-09	LeBron James	Small forward	Cleveland Cavaliers
2007-08	Kobe Bryant	Shooting guard	Los Angeles Lakers
2006-07	Dirk Nowitzki	Power forward	Dallas Mavericks
2005-06	Steve Nash	Point guard	Phoenix Suns
2004-05	Steve Nash	Point guard	Phoenix Suns