A pair of struggling NBA teams face off at the Toyota Center on Friday night as the Houston Rockets host the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are 2-9 since losing Jakob Poeltl to an ankle injury while the Rockets are 4-9 in their previous 13 contests to fall to three games below .500.
There's optimism that Poeltl, along with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, could return to Toronto's lineup today but NBA odds still have the Raps installed as 4-point road underdogs. Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for the Raptors vs. Rockets on February 2.
Raptors vs Rockets odds
Raptors vs Rockets predictions
It's tough to handicap this spread with much confidence, given that Jakob Poeltl, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett are all listed as questionable for the Toronto Raptors. The Raps have struggled without Poeltl because of their lack of depth at center while Quickley has missed the last three contests and Barrett the last two. However, Poeltl and Quickley were full participants in practice yesterday, and that, combined with the spread shortening from +6 to +4 for Toronto, makes me think both could suit up.
That said, even if both end up playing, the Raptors could still struggle to put up points especially since Poeltl might show signs of rust and isn't a high-volume scorer anyway. Since trading away Pascal Siakam in mid-January, the Raps are just 26th in the league in offensive rating.
While the Houston Rockets have been shaky lately they remain solid on defense and are fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last eight games. The free agent signing of Dillon Brooks has helped turn Houston's defense around from one of the league's worst units.
Although the Rockets struggled defensively when Brooks missed nine games with an oblique injury, they still rank seventh in the NBA in defensive rating this season (112.4) with that improving to 108.7 at home — the third-best number in the league.
Toronto has looked ugly in half-court sets but has thrived in transition, leading the league with 18.1 points per game on the fast break. However, the Rockets allow the fewest fast-break points per game in the league (10.0) and they also do a good job of closing out perimeter shooters while cleaning up on the glass. Take the Under on Toronto's team total.
My best bet: Raptors team total Under 114.5 (-120 at PointsBet)
Raptors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Raptors team total Under 114.5
Alperen Sengun Over 22.5 points
Scottie Barnes to score first basket
Toronto isn't the only side with key players listed as questionable, with Houston center Alperen Sengun also popping up on the injury list due to an illness. However, given that he hasn't missed a single game this season and that books have already put out player props for him, it seems likely he'll tough it out.
Sengun is averaging 21.7 ppg on 54.1% shooting and while he's coming off a poor performance, he should be in line to bounce back against a soft Toronto interior.
The Raptors are 25th in the league in points per game allowed in the paint (54.0) with that number ballooning to 64.7 ppg over their last six contests. Granted, if Poeltl returns to the court today they should be better down low, but there's still a strong chance that Sengun goes off — especially if he's pissed off about being snubbed from the All-Star game.
Adding Scottie Barnes to score the first basket of the game (+550 by itself) makes this wager a long shot but one that could pay off extremely well. Barnes somewhat surprisingly leads the league in first baskets scored this season with 10 through 40 games. He's even more likely to take the first shot for Toronto tonight with Barrett probably missing another contest.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Rockets installed as 6-point home favorites with the O/U at 227.5. However, with Poeltl and Quickley trending towards playing, the line has shortened to Houston -4 while the total has climbed to 231.5.
The Raptors have struggled this season and are in the midst of a rebuild following the trades of Siakam and OG Anunoby. That said, they should be better once Poeltl returns to the floor although there are also reports that he might be getting shopped around the league.
Houston doesn't look good lately either. Since Christmas, the Rockets are just 7-13 straight up and against the spread. While they are 17-9 at home this season they've dropped three of their last five games at the Toyota Center, barely beating the Jazz in overtime.
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Raptors vs Rockets betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Raptors' last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Rockets.
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Raptors vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Friday, February 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, SCHN |
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