Pacers vs Celtics Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Pacers continue their season-long freefall against a stifling Celtics defense, and we're targeting the Under even with Jaylen Brown primed for a big game.

Eric Rosales - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jan 21, 2026 • 08:27 ET • 4 min read

NBA

Match starts: 9 hrs
BOS
58 %
IND
42 %
EXPERT PICK - TOTAL
u227.5 (-110)
Read Analysis
Jaylen Brown Boston Celtics NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Celtics All-Star Jaylen Brown (7) is guarded by Pacers G Andrew Nembhard.

After getting hammered in the first two of a five-game road set, it doesn’t get easier for the Indiana Pacers, who square off with the Boston Celtics at TD Garden tonight.

My Pacers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks don't expect Indiana to keep up its end of the scoring bargain, ultimately dragging down the total, on Wednesday, January 21.

Pacers vs Celtics prediction

Pacers vs Celtics best bet: Under 227.5 (-110)

On Saturday, the Indiana Pacers put up their fewest points of the campaign in a 121-78 thrashing at the hands of the Pistons.

They followed that up by scoring just 104 points in a loss to the 76ers, turning it over a whopping 24 times.

Over their last five games, Indiana has scored 104 points or less four times – well below their 110.1 points per game average on the year, which ranks 29th, better than only Brooklyn.

Amazingly, one of those games was a win against these same Boston Celtics, who have lost three of five, with the C’s putting up just 98 points per game in those losses.

Still, in what was supposed to be a regroup year, Boston sits second in the East, powered by All-Star Jaylen Brown.

However, Brown did find his way onto the injury report with a hamstring injury, though he is listed as probable for Wednesday. The one loss to Indy was with Brown out of the lineup.

Indiana can’t score, and Boston owns the second-best scoring defense in the league, and third-best field goal shooting defense.

It’s no surprise, then, that the Under has hit in two of three meetings this season. Indiana has cashed the Under in six of its last seven, and the beat (and beatings) should go on in Beantown.

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Pacers vs Celtics same-game parlay

Brown was just named an All-Star starter for the first time in his career on Monday, and Indy is a good opponent to showcase his wares. He’s topped 30 points in both meetings with the Pacers, clearing this total once and falling short by a free throw the other.

And perhaps the books haven’t been following Aaron Nesmith too closely, setting his 3-point make line at 2.5. He’s gone Under that figure in six straight, and is just 2-for-22 from distance in his last three games.

Pacers vs Celtics SGP

  • Under 227.5
  • Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 points
  • Aaron Nesmith Under 2.5 threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: Derrick White's Block Party

Neemias Queta has been a revelation for Boston’s improbable run this year, leading the team in rebounds at 8.2 per game. But he’s only topped his 8.5-board line in two of the last six, and has gone sub-9 in all three games vs. Indy this year. 

We’ll finish with the Over for the best blocking guard in the business. Derrick White has had multi-block games in eight of his last 11, including a 7-swat effort against Utah.

Pacers vs Celtics SGP

  • Under 227.5
  • Jaylen Brown Over 30.5 points
  • Aaron Nesmith Under 2.5 threes
  • Neemias Queta Under 8.5 rebounds
  • Derrick White Over 0.5 blocks

Pacers vs Celtics odds

  • Spread: Pacers +10.5 (-110) | Celtics -10.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Pacers +400 | Celtics -550
  • Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)

Pacers vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Pacers have lost 15 straight road games vs teams with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Celtics.

How to watch Pacers vs Celtics

Location TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Tip-off 7:30 p.m. ET
TV FDSN Indiana, NBC Sports Boston

Pacers vs Celtics latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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