The Dallas Mavericks dropped a tough game against the Indiana Pacers on Sunday and their East-Coast road trip doesn’t get any easier as they face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, February 27. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been transcendent since the trade deadline, but they face a tall task going against a Cavs team that is finally fully healthy.
The Cavaliers have stumbled for the first time in 2024 with Donovan Mitchell missing time. If the Cavaliers are going to win today and in the playoffs, they need Mitchell healthy and playing at a high level.
NBA odds favor the home team in this one, but I believe the greater value lies with Dallas. Check out my detailed NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Cavaliers to see why I think oddsmakers have overrated Cleveland in today's matchup.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers odds
Mavericks vs Cavaliers predictions
At the risk of getting burned by the same team twice in one week, I’m once again siding with the Dallas Mavericks for my best bet on Tuesday. The Mavs are coming off a difficult loss to the Indiana Pacers, a game where, frankly, they were outplayed in just about every respect.
But one loss doesn’t undo the resume they’ve put together of late, and when looking at what the Cleveland Cavaliers have done lately, I become increasingly bullish on Dallas’ chances.
The Cavaliers are a fascinating team. They have one of the best records in the NBA since injuries laid low both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, but have hit a small bit of adversity lately.
Donovan Mitchell is recovering from an illness that saw him miss games on February 22 and 23 before returning against the Washington Wizards on Sunday. Mitchell played 36 minutes, but he was not himself.
He committed five fouls and went just 4-10 from the field, barely attacking the paint at all. He seemed to be out there to be a spacing threat rather than provide anywhere near his superstar-level production.
The Cavaliers struggled to get separation from the Wizards for much of the game despite dominating the interior battle. Cleveland scored 60 points in the paint as Washington failed to defend simple pick-and-rolls and slips to the rim by Jarrett Allen and Mobley.
The Mavericks have both Derrick Lively II and Daniel Gafford to make that significantly more difficult. If those points dry up, Cleveland’s offense could flatline.
While I think Mitchell should be better on Tuesday, it’s hard to say by how much. Whatever illness he had was serious enough for him to miss two games and be hobbled in a third, so its effects could easily linger into today’s game against Dallas.
If Mitchell is limited, the Cavaliers are a much less threatening team. For all their dominance this season, they have yet to make all four pieces of Mitchell, Darius Garland, Allen, and Mobley fit together as more than the sum of their parts.
Their best stretch of basketball came with Mitchell and Allen playing together as Garland and Mobley were out, now that all four are closing games together it has not been as additive as you might think.
Mobley’s inability to be a credible outside threat cramps their spacing, and the size of the Cleveland backcourt gives Luka Doncic easy targets for mismatch hunting.
In their last five games, the Cavaliers have a -2 point differential, and that has come against weak competition. Their best win this month was a blowout victory over the ever-mercurial Sacramento Kings at home. They’re picking up wins against the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards but hardly in convincing fashion.
The Cavs haven’t had to prove it against a team as good as Dallas in quite some time, and I suspect there’s a good chance they’ll fail the stress test that Doncic puts them under. Certainly enough to warrant a moneyline bet with this much plus money value.
My best bet: Mavericks moneyline (+159 at Pinnacle)
Mavericks vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Mavericks moneyline
Evan Mobley Over 14.5 points
Luka Doncic 3+ threes made
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While I remain skeptical that Mobley has suddenly become an impact 3-point shooter, he has been scoring well since his return from knee surgery. Mobley is averaging 16.3 points over his last 10 games and has only failed to score at least 14 points twice in that time.
He’s such a fluid mover for his size, and he has great touch around the rim. He’s an athletic finisher too, but he does much better scoring against other forwards and wings than big centers.
He’ll likely be going against PJ Washington in this one, which means he’ll have the height and reach edge that suits him.
Since I already have big value coming from the Mavs moneyline, I’m taking Doncic to hit at least three triples at short odds to round out my same-game parlay, Doncic has hit at least three 3-pointers in eight of his last 10 games and should be able to get to his patented step back against any of the Cavaliers relatively undersized defenders.
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Mavericks vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Cavaliers opened between -3.5 and -4.5 favorites for Tuesday, with most sportsbooks now carrying the line between -4 and -4.5.
Both teams have an identical record straight up (7-3) and against the spread (6-4) in their last 10. Dallas and Cleveland have been two of the better teams in the Association over the last few weeks, and each have had a couple of relatively down performances more recently.
The Mavericks got killed by a good but not great Pacers team, as they proved unable to match their speed or defensive intensity. The Cavs had been sorely missing Mitchell and dropped back-to-back games against the Orlando Magic and the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid.
Despite dropping Sunday against Indiana, the Mavericks have been a strong road team this season. They’re at 16-10 against the spread on the road this season, the fifth-best mark in the Association. The Pacers just played at a high level on Sunday, a level that Cleveland hasn’t hit in over 10 games.
While Cleveland has the talent deserving of this line, I don’t trust their opening or closing lineups against the Mavs.
The total opened at 232.5 and has since risen as high as 234.5.
The Mavericks' defense has been rock-solid since the trade deadline, and the Cavaliers' offense has been Bottom-10 over the last two weeks of play. While I don’t see immense value in taking the Under just yet, if this jumps another point or two ahead of tip off, I would pounce.
If Mitchell is below 100% again the Mavericks could match up defensively quite well with the Cavaliers, my hesitation is that Luka and Kyrie Irving could go nuclear.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Mavericks are 16-10 ATS on the road this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Cavaliers.
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Mavericks vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports SW-DAL |
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